Expert view: Earnings may not recover anytime soon; green shoots emerging in IT, says Pramod Gubbi of Marcellus
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Expert view: Earnings may not recover anytime soon; green shoots emerging in IT, says Pramod Gubbi of Marcellus

Live Mint  

Expert view: Pramod Gubbi, co-founder of Marcellus Investment Managers, believes the Indian stock market has a lot of headwinds to deal with at the current juncture. In an interview with Mint, he said the Indian stock market's valuations remain elevated, and earnings may not recover anytime soon. On the other hand, if retail investors lose patience and domestic flows abate, we might see significant downsides, especially in small and mid-caps, which domestic flows have so far supported. As highlighted above, key risks from a fundamental perspective are earnings growth falling short of expectations embedded in lofty valuations, sustained strength in the US dollar resulting in continued FII selling, and potentially domestic investors losing their nerve, resulting in slowing domestic flows. Whilst long-term macroeconomic fundamentals remain strong, with fiscal consolidation, inflation somewhat benign, bank balance sheets strong, and corporate leverage low, there is clearly a cyclical slowdown driven by slowing public capex and slightly levered households, resulting in slowing consumption, especially middle-class consumption.

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