Agrarian, liquidity crisis weigh on India consumption story
6 years ago

Agrarian, liquidity crisis weigh on India consumption story

Live Mint  

Analysts are getting increasingly wary about the outlook for consumption demand, even though investors are brushing aside these risks for now. In fact, the 2019 outlook reports of other brokers are also taking into account the impending slowdown in India’s consumption story. For instance, JM Financial Institutional Securities Ltd said in a 7 December note that “the consumption outlook is a tad worse than it was in early calendar year 2018”. A sharp increase in funding costs for non-banking financial companies and pressure on net interest margins will ultimately lead to NBFCs passing on this increase in cost to consumers, says Ambit Capital Pvt. According to a report by Deloitte and Ficci, rural households contribute around 50% to GDP, 40% of fast-moving consumer goods sales, 50% two-wheeler sales, 30% four wheeler sales and 45% to telecom.

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History of this topic

DC Edit | Fall in consumption signals economic slump lies ahead
6 days, 16 hours ago

DC Edit | Fall in consumption signals economic slump lies ahead

Deccan Chronicle  

The Indian economy is likely to record the slowest growth in the last four years at 6.4 per cent in the next financial year 2024-25, according to the first advance estimates released by the government on Tuesday. The growth in the manufacturing sector, constrained by weak exports and slowing global demand, is expected to muted at 5.3 per cent from …

India’s household consumption survey doesn’t feed public policy all that well
1 week, 6 days ago

India’s household consumption survey doesn’t feed public policy all that well

Live Mint  

India’s government recently released the findings of its 2023-24 survey of household consumption expenditure and expressed satisfaction at the seeming narrowing of spending gaps in society at large and between rural and urban populations. However, we must not set too much store by the monthly per capita consumption expenditure figures of this sample survey. India’s free foodgrain scheme may explain …

India’s rural-urban consumption gap narrowed in 2023-24, govt survey says
2 weeks, 4 days ago

India’s rural-urban consumption gap narrowed in 2023-24, govt survey says

Live Mint  

New Delhi: The average monthly per capita consumption expenditure in India saw significant growth in 2023-24, fuelled by higher spending across rural and urban households and a narrowing consumption gap between the two, according to data released by the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation on Friday. "When ranked by MPCE, the increase in the average MPCE in 2023-24 from …

Mint Explainer: How sustainable is India's rural consumption boom?
1 month, 3 weeks ago

Mint Explainer: How sustainable is India's rural consumption boom?

Live Mint  

India’s consumer goods giants found an unexpected saviour this past quarter: rural demand. The periodic labour force survey data show a jump in women’s participation in economic activities in rural India since the Covid-19 pandemic. The easing of labour law provisions by some states to allow women to work night shifts also contributed to raising their participation in economic activities …

Mint Explainer: How sustainable is India's rural consumption boom?
1 month, 3 weeks ago

Mint Explainer: How sustainable is India's rural consumption boom?

Live Mint  

India’s consumer goods giants found an unexpected saviour this past quarter: rural demand. The periodic labour force survey data show a jump in women’s participation in economic activities in rural India since the Covid-19 pandemic. The easing of labour law provisions by some states to allow women to work night shifts also contributed to raising their participation in economic activities …

'Double engine' of private investment, mass consumption derailed under Modi government: Congress
2 months ago

'Double engine' of private investment, mass consumption derailed under Modi government: Congress

New Indian Express  

Congress general secretary in-charge communications Jairam Ramesh urged the government to accept what the Congress has been proposing - raising MGNREGA wages to a minimum of Rs.400 per day, guaranteeing MSP and a loan waiver for farmers, and a monthly income support scheme for women - to kickstart income growth in rural India. Last week, several CEOs from India Inc …

India's Q1 GDP: Private consumption lifts mood
4 months, 2 weeks ago

India's Q1 GDP: Private consumption lifts mood

New Indian Express  

NEW DELHI: The GDP growth slumped to a 15-month low with 6.8% real rate of growth in the first quarter of 2024-25. As per Gaura Sen Gupta, economist, India First Bank, the growth is likely led by rural demand with improvement in labour market conditions. High frequency indicators for urban demand like FMCG sales volume and passenger vehicle sales growth …

Rural-Urban Consumption Dynamics in India
7 months ago

Rural-Urban Consumption Dynamics in India

Deccan Chronicle  

Over the past decade, India has witnessed a notable rise in consumption spending in both rural and urban areas, indicating a shift in economic dynamics and lifestyle choices. Furthermore, the changing food habits of the Indian populace have contributed to the evolving consumption patterns observed in both rural and urban areas. In conclusion, the equivalent rise in consumption spending in …

Real GDP growth may hit 8% this fiscal year, signals FinMin
9 months, 3 weeks ago

Real GDP growth may hit 8% this fiscal year, signals FinMin

The Hindu  

India’s economy may well end up growing by about 8% this fiscal, outstripping the 7.6% real GDP growth projected by the National Statistical Office, the Finance Ministry signalled on Friday, citing the continuing momentum in economic activity in the ongoing final quarter of 2023-24. Despite risks such as “hardening crude oil prices” and “global supply chain bottlenecks to trade”, the …

Sanjeev Ahluwalia | The politics behind India’s rural and urban spending
10 months, 1 week ago

Sanjeev Ahluwalia | The politics behind India’s rural and urban spending

Deccan Chronicle  

Household consumption expenditure estimates are based on a national survey of 0.1 per cent of the 194.9 million rural and 89.5 million urban households/families. The corresponding share of expenditure on food increases from 46.4 per cent in rural areas to 47 per cent and from 39.2 per cent in urban areas to 40 per cent. Rural consumption, as a proportion …

SBI Research backs NSSO report, credits Modi govt for decline in India's consumption inequality
10 months, 2 weeks ago

SBI Research backs NSSO report, credits Modi govt for decline in India's consumption inequality

Op India  

On Tuesday, a research report published by the State Bank of India corroborated the findings of the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey, which was conducted by the National Sample Survey Office. Decadal changes in MPCE show decline in consumption inequality, graphic via SBI Research “Rural Poverty has thus staged a significant 440-basis point decline since 2018-19 and Urban Poverty a 170-basis …

Positive GDP Surprise: Growth in Private Consumption Remains Critical
1 year ago

Positive GDP Surprise: Growth in Private Consumption Remains Critical

News 18  

The government’s first advance estimate of the Gross Domestic Product for the current fiscal, which will end in March, has been a positive surprise for most economists. Rajani Sinha, the Chief Economist of CARE Ratings, said MOSPI’s projection of the GDP “seems to be relatively optimistic, surpassing the RBI’s estimate of 7% and our own projection of 6.8 per cent”. …

We must look beyond India’s exciting headline GDP numbers
1 year, 1 month ago

We must look beyond India’s exciting headline GDP numbers

Live Mint  

The Indian economy’s stellar performance in the second quarter of fiscal 2023-24 put all previous GDP estimates, including the Reserve Bank of India’s own estimate of 6.5%, in the shade. Geopolitical factors, the strength of the US economy and hence the US Federal Reserve’s continued fight against inflation, and the ongoing global slowdown are sure to lower growth in the …

Average household spending rose 3.5% from August 2023 to July 2024, shows govt. survey
1 year, 5 months ago

Average household spending rose 3.5% from August 2023 to July 2024, shows govt. survey

The Hindu  

India’s average household consumption spending on a per capita basis rose about 3.5% in real terms through August 2023 to July 2024 from a year ago, as per the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey, and the Centre asserted this signals a decline in consumption inequality as well as a narrowing gap between urban and rural spends. In real terms, the average …

ADB pares India’s growth hopes to 6.4%
1 year, 9 months ago

ADB pares India’s growth hopes to 6.4%

The Hindu  

The Asian Development Bank has slashed its growth projection for India for 2023-24 sharply from 7.2% estimated earlier to 6.4%, attributing the cut to the global economic slowdown, tight monetary conditions, and persistently elevated oil prices. While domestic consumption demand is likely to stay healthy, private investment growth is likely to be lower this year due to high lending rates …

Private consumption expenditure and demand: Please ma’am, we need some more
2 years, 11 months ago

Private consumption expenditure and demand: Please ma’am, we need some more

Live Mint  

Slowdown in personal consumption is the single biggest problem facing our economy. The double whammy of lower employment and Covid-19 has meant a significant reduction in consumption for low and lower-middle income households. This has meant a delayed recovery on many key sources of consumption – automotive, high value durables, OOH and discretionary spends like retail, restaurants and personal care. …

Budget 2022: Bharat needs revival of animal spirits to boost consumption
2 years, 11 months ago

Budget 2022: Bharat needs revival of animal spirits to boost consumption

Firstpost  

Budget 2022: Rural demand turned sluggish after the second wave of the pandemic even as other parts of the economy recovered robustly The first advance estimate of India’s GDP growth for 2021-22 indicated a steadfast recovery in the economy after the blow from COVID-19 in 2020-21. “There is a structural losing of consumption momentum in the rural areas since 2018.” …

Measures taken by Indian govt. will boost economic growth: SBI MD Dinesh Khara
4 years, 10 months ago

Measures taken by Indian govt. will boost economic growth: SBI MD Dinesh Khara

The Hindu  

Slowdown in the Indian economy has bottomed out and measures taken by the government in the recent budget to improve capacity to spend in rural sector, infrastructure creation and inviting foreign investments will boost growth, State Bank of India Managing Director Dinesh Khara has said. “These kinds of measures which have been taken will go a long way in terms …

RBI monetary policy: Central bank estimates GDP growth to expand at 6% in next fiscal; expects rural private consumption to recover
4 years, 11 months ago

RBI monetary policy: Central bank estimates GDP growth to expand at 6% in next fiscal; expects rural private consumption to recover

Firstpost  

Mumbai: The Reserve Bank of India on Thursday projected the economy to expand by 6 percent during the next financial year, pegging it at the lower end of the GDP growth estimate of the Economic Survey. After three-day deliberations, the Monetary Policy Committee, headed by Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das, observed that the economy continues to be weak …

India's weak household consumption to curb economic growth: Moody's
5 years ago

India's weak household consumption to curb economic growth: Moody's

India TV News  

Moody's Investors Service on Monday said that India's weak household consumption will curb economic growth and weigh on the credit quality of Indian issuers in a range of sectors. Moody's has lowered its GDP growth projection for India for the fiscal year ending March 2020 to 4.9 per cent from 5.8 per cent. The major factors responsible for weakening economic …

Slowdown in consumption: India Ratings cut GDP forecast to 6.7% for current fiscal from earlier estimate of 7.3%
5 years, 4 months ago

Slowdown in consumption: India Ratings cut GDP forecast to 6.7% for current fiscal from earlier estimate of 7.3%

Firstpost  

New Delhi: India Ratings on Wednesday lowered the country’s growth forecast to six-year low of 6.7 percent for the current fiscal from an earlier estimate of 7.3 percent on account of slowdown in consumption and moderation in industrial growth among other factors. However, average investment growth, largely constituting government and corporate sector maintenance capex, at 9.2 percent during 2016-17 to …

India set to grow at 7.2% this fiscal on rising consumption, farmers receiving income support: Asian Development Bank
5 years, 9 months ago

India set to grow at 7.2% this fiscal on rising consumption, farmers receiving income support: Asian Development Bank

Firstpost  

Growth slowed from 7.2 percent in fiscal 2017 to 7 percent in 2018, with weaker agricultural output and consumption growth curtailed by higher global oil prices, ADB said New Delhi: India’s growth is set to pick up and is expected to grow at 7.2 percent in the current fiscal on strengthening consumption, Asian Development Bank said in its flagship report …

India's GDP growth likely slowed to 6.9% in December quarter, data to be out on Thursday
5 years, 10 months ago

India's GDP growth likely slowed to 6.9% in December quarter, data to be out on Thursday

Firstpost  

India’s economy likely grew at its slowest pace in over a year in the October-December quarter as weaker rural incomes and softer urban demand weighed on consumption, a Reuters poll showed Bengaluru: India’s economy likely grew at its slowest pace in over a year in the October-December quarter as weaker rural incomes and softer urban demand weighed on consumption, a …

Consumption-driven GDP growth unhealthy for Indian economy
6 years, 4 months ago

Consumption-driven GDP growth unhealthy for Indian economy

Live Mint  

Economic growth of 8.2% for the June quarter may have beaten all estimates, but the big question is: what kind of growth is it? Private final consumption expenditure growth rose to 8.6% in the June quarter from 6.7% in the preceding March quarter. What’s more, the growth rate has increased despite an unfavourable base—PFCE growth in the June 2017 quarter …

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