Whakaari White Island trial hears expert evidence that there was a one in 20 chance of a 'mass casualty event'

An internationally renowned expert volcanologist has told the White Island trial that by his calculations tours to the island presented a one in 20 chance of a "mass casualty event". And in a document shown to the court, New Zealand's volcano monitor GNS Science had observed: "The three Buttle brothers all seemed to understand the need for robust risk management protocols to be in place and they undertook to talk to the operators to encourage them to re-think their procedures." Mr Cairney also presented to the court a GNS Science volcano alert bulletin that was being drafted as Whakaari erupted, and was "tragically never sent". Dr Proctor said, in his opinion, releasing existing hazard maps that depicted GNS Science exclusion zones "would have been very helpful for tour operators, Whakaari Management Limited, the pilots contracted by GNS to fly to Whakaari and other third parties such as the National Emergency Management Agency".