How a group of scientists are using the deadly Montecito mudflow to predict future disasters

A wall of sandstone boulders, some the size of RVs, barreled through Montecito, followed by a growing tail of water, mud and debris. So when a once-in-200-year storm cell dropped half an inch of rain in five minutes early that morning, it created what Kean called “a moving dam.” The largest parts of the mudflow — the boulders — naturally rolled to the front, creating a wall that let the river behind it grow in height and force instead of dispersing its energy wider across the landscape. That’s something that Kean and his colleagues at the USGS, California Geological Survey, California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, and Santa Barbara County Fire Department want to change. “It’s tough for residents to hear, but there’s plenty of ammunition left there.” After measuring everything they can about the debris flow, scientists will attempt to recreate the event using computer models. “Our hope is to have maps that show the broad-scale potential for inundation and reasonably reflect where the flow could be substantially diverted by man-made structures or natural/constructed topography.” Kean said Southern California offers the best locations to model potential disaster zones because of its high frequency of fires followed by rain, the region’s steep terrain and dense population centers.