Three imbalances on road to India's economic rise

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is preparing for a third term in office, but the just-concluded general election was different from the previous ones in that the overall voter turnout was lower than the previous elections, leaders of some political parties showed "election fatigue" and many voters might have voted against Modi. Although New Delhi proposed the "Make in India " initiative in 2014 to increase the share of manufacturing in GDP from 15 percent to 25 percent by 2025, according to the Reserve Bank of India, the proportion of manufacturing in India's GDP declined from 18.7 percent in the 2021-22 fiscal year to about 17.7 percent in 2022-23. As such, India seems to lack the material basis for its strategic rise, and inclusive and sustainable development, although the trade frictions between China and the United States-led West could somewhat benefit India, because the Western developed countries are trying to isolate China's industry and supply chains from those of the rest of the world. In terms of raw materials and primary products, China's imports account for 3.8 percent of the global GDP while India's account for 0.9 percent. And in terms of industrial products, China's imports and consumption account for 50-60 percent of global consumption of industrial commodities, while India's share is between 2 and 6 percent.