Cal Fire’s predictions didn’t foresee the Altadena inferno. Now it’s changing its fire-hazard maps

The Tunnel fire broke out in a wooded canyon just minutes away from UC Berkeley, where David Sapsis was working on his PhD in fire science. And the ramifications of that will be significant.” While a newer experimental fire modeling approach used by the public-interest company First Street had identified Altadena as having significant fire risk and provided a detailed scale of risk levels prior to the disaster, Cal Fire’s maps only showed a ring of “very high” red hazard in the wildlands next to Altadena, with the vast majority of the city unmarked. First Street “fire factor” Minor Moderate Major Severe Extreme Cal Fire’s “very high” fire hazard severity zone Altadena Dr. Altadena Lake Ave. Eaton fire perimeter 1 MILE Cal Fire’s “very high” fire hazard severity zone Altadena Dr. Altadena Lake Ave. Eaton fire perimeter 1 MILE First Street, California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, National Interagency Fire Center Sean Greene LOS ANGELES TIMES Cal Fire’s maps follow a trail of disaster. In an analysis before the Eaton fire occurred, Sapsis found that about 95% of home loss from past fires occurred in zones that Cal Fire had deemed as “very high” fire hazard. An analysis by The Times found that 83% of the more than 9,400 structures destroyed in the Eaton fire were outside Cal Fire’s “very high” fire hazard severity zones, while only 0.1% of structures destroyed in the Palisades fire were outside the “very high” zones — just two nonresidential buildings.