China’s 6th Generation and Upcoming Combat Aircraft: 2024 Update
The DiplomatIn However, PLA secrecy remains unique among the major military forces of the world, and this has only intensified in the last half decade as geopolitical tensions have escalated. PLA secrecy and the difficult nature of attaining consistent high-quality satellite imagery means any “concrete” estimate of the J-20 fleet size is likely to be meaningfully behind from facts on the ground at any given time, though may serve as a useful “minimum floor” estimate. It is unclear how a notional “J-31” may fit in context of PLA procurement of J-20 family aircraft that is occurring at relatively large scale, not to mention the future J-XD and expectant UCAVs/CCAs. Similar to other efforts by international air forces, PLA UCAVs and CCAs are very likely to be integral capabilities with the future J-XD fighter, as well as be compatible with existing fifth-generation fighters like the J-20 and J-35, and potentially 4.5-generation fighters such as the J-16 and J-10C with requisite upgrades. The J-XD and associated future PLA UCAV and CCA projects will emerge alongside other global projects in highly uncharted waters, and may prove to be more fascinating than past PLA aerospace tracking efforts, and indeed more novel than past global military aerospace tracking since the Cold War.