Why the bout between the Reserve Bank and the federal government is about to heat up
3 months, 2 weeks ago

Why the bout between the Reserve Bank and the federal government is about to heat up

ABC  

There's an old adage that oppositions don't win elections, governments lose them. RBA Governor Michele Bullock says Australia's strategy of reducing inflation without stoking too much unemployment is part of the reason why it looks different to peer economies right now. RBA unlikely to react to October inflation data Photo shows Household money pic Australia's inflation rate remained steady in October, with rising prices for food, alcohol, cigarettes and recreational activities keeping it at 2.1 per cent annually. That's seen bank economists push rate cuts back from December to February and now to May, leaving precious little time for the government to spruik its economic performance in the lead-up to the election. Loading Inflation has fallen from 7.8 per cent down to 2.1 per cent, with rates stuck at 4.35 per cent for a year, indicating that the rate hikes have done their job and the economy is cooling, Growth is, at best, sluggish, property is stagnating and households are struggling under the most severe downturn in living standards in generations.

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History of this topic

Has Australia's economy turned the corner? Angus Taylor has a warning
2 weeks ago

Has Australia's economy turned the corner? Angus Taylor has a warning

ABC  

Economists say Australia has turned a corner. Last week, he said labour productivity was still "disastrous" in Australia and the purchasing power of our wages had deteriorated "disastrously" since Labor won the election in 2022. By the time the 2022 election was held, the "real" value of our wages had already deteriorated so much that our wages were buying less …

Why isn't the Albanese government boasting about falling inflation?
3 weeks ago

Why isn't the Albanese government boasting about falling inflation?

ABC  

Independent economist Saul Eslake made a fascinating observation recently. "Nonetheless, I'm genuinely surprised that Treasurer Jim Chalmers and his colleagues haven't been proclaiming often and loudly that they've "pulled off" something that has never been accomplished before in Australia," he said. By "tolerable," he means a level of inflation that's become low enough for the Reserve Bank of Australia to …

RBA delivers first rate cut since 2020
1 month ago

RBA delivers first rate cut since 2020

ABC  

Samantha Donovan: Hello, welcome to PM. So what we've seen is those really sticky items in the inflation baskets, I think insurance premiums, out-of-pocket health care costs, the cost of building a new dwelling or rental prices, those price increases have been such that the Reserve Bank has been worried that if it doesn't keep interest rate policy restrictive, and …

Australian central bank cuts benchmark interest rate for the first time since October 2020
1 month ago

Australian central bank cuts benchmark interest rate for the first time since October 2020

Associated Press  

MELBOURNE, Australia — Australia’s central bank on Tuesday reduced its benchmark interest rate for the first time since October 2020 as the nation’s inflation cools. “Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance,” the board said in a statement. “Some other central banks …

Why the Reserve Bank has little option but to cut interest rates
1 month ago

Why the Reserve Bank has little option but to cut interest rates

ABC  

After more than six months of conjecture and on-again off-again signals, interest rates are about to start a descent. In the December quarter, core inflation came in at just 0.5 per cent which, if you annualise it, comes in at just 2 per cent, smack bang at the bottom of the RBA's target range. Core inflation has dropped rapidly, more …

Reserve Bank cuts interest rates for the first time since November 2020
1 month ago

Reserve Bank cuts interest rates for the first time since November 2020

ABC  

The Reserve Bank of Australia has cut interest rates for the first time since November 2020. RBA governor Michele Bullock noted that the rise in interest rates from the "emergency lows" of the pandemic had meant households with home loans were hurting, but argued high inflation caused more pain. At the post-meeting press conference, Ms Bullock said she couldn't confirm …

The RBA hasn't changed the cash rate for more than a year. Here's why
1 month, 1 week ago

The RBA hasn't changed the cash rate for more than a year. Here's why

ABC  

The cash rate target — a figure that influences how high people's mortgage repayments are set — hasn't changed for more than a year. That's why, when inflation started increasing rapidly in Australia, the RBA began lifting interest rates to stop inflation getting worse — and to drag inflation back down into the 2–3 per cent range. The RBA raised …

Inflation has fallen in Australia and NZ, but which is faring better?
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Inflation has fallen in Australia and NZ, but which is faring better?

ABC  

New Zealand's economy is in recession. But inflation has fallen in both countries, and Australia's Reserve Bank is expected to start cutting interest rates soon. For example, New Zealand's labour force hasn't grown in the past 12 months, but you wouldn't know that by looking at its unemployment rate. Therefore, you could argue that New Zealand's unemployment rate is obscuring …

Why is the Australian dollar falling and what could it mean for you?
2 months, 1 week ago

Why is the Australian dollar falling and what could it mean for you?

ABC  

The Australian dollar is around its lowest level since 2020 against the US currency, continuing its move towards 61 US cents with a sharp fall over the weekend. "While the strong US dollar has left no prisoners, the Aussie softness has been exacerbated by tariff angst, fears over economic growth in China and the repricing in domestic interest rate expectations," …

Good news millions of Aussies with a mortgage have been waiting to hear for years
2 months, 2 weeks ago

Good news millions of Aussies with a mortgage have been waiting to hear for years

Daily Mail  

Economic analysts and bank bosses have forecast an interest rate cut in the next three months, in welcome news for those struggling with mortgage repayments. Westpac chief economist Luci Ellis told Daily Mail Australia on Tuesday that the Reserve Bank could cut rates soon. Economic analysts and bank bosses have revealed an interest rate cut is on the horizon in …

Interest rates, exporters and Reserve Bank intervention: There's a lot at stake as the Australian dollar weakens
2 months, 2 weeks ago

Interest rates, exporters and Reserve Bank intervention: There's a lot at stake as the Australian dollar weakens

ABC  

Is the Reserve Bank close to stepping into the currency market to support the Australian dollar and, if so, what does this mean for millions of Australians? Reserve Bank can intervene to support the dollar The Reserve Bank last intervened in the foreign exchange market in 2007-08 during the global financial crisis, when it bought Australian dollars. "This was in …

Australian dollar now at risk of plummeting to pandemic-era lows, analysts say
2 months, 3 weeks ago

Australian dollar now at risk of plummeting to pandemic-era lows, analysts say

ABC  

The Australian dollar has fallen sharply, hitting a multi-year low of 61.88 US cents — a level not seen since October, 2022. "The problem with the Australian dollar appears to be that there was a real wobble in the Chinese currency into New Year's Eve," InTouch Capital Markets senior FX analyst Sean Callow said. The US dollar has performed strongly …

RBA Is More Confident on CPI, But Too Early to Declare Victory
2 months, 3 weeks ago

RBA Is More Confident on CPI, But Too Early to Declare Victory

Live Mint  

-- Australia’s central bank is more confident that inflation is moving sustainably toward target but it’s still too soon to conclude the battle is won given a recent pick-up in consumption and a still-tight labor market, minutes of the December meeting showed. The Reserve Bank’s board discussed scenarios in which future policy would be eased to boost economic growth or …

The Australian dollar could be heading to a 20-year low, on risks of China, Trump and slow growth
2 months, 3 weeks ago

The Australian dollar could be heading to a 20-year low, on risks of China, Trump and slow growth

ABC  

You wouldn't be an economics forecaster for quids. A weak Chinese economy, American threats to impose punishing trade tariffs, a poor medium-to-longer-term outlook for our key exports and a sluggish economy are likely to keep the Australian dollar under pressure through 2025, threatening to send it into the 50 US cents. The upside of heading down The Australian dollar is …

NZ recession and Federal Reserve rate cut sink Aussie dollar but show the RBA dodged a bullet
3 months ago

NZ recession and Federal Reserve rate cut sink Aussie dollar but show the RBA dodged a bullet

ABC  

If you're looking for a last-minute overseas summer getaway, New Zealand is looking increasingly attractive. On the monetary policy front, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand started lifting its cash rate from COVID-19 lows of 0.25 per cent in October 2021 — a full seven months before Australia's Reserve Bank. Why a Fed rate cut sent the US dollar soaring …

The Federal Reserve lowers interest rates again — but hints at fewer cuts next year
3 months ago

The Federal Reserve lowers interest rates again — but hints at fewer cuts next year

NPR  

The Federal Reserve lowers interest rates again — but hints at fewer cuts next year toggle caption Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates on Wednesday, but policymakers signaled caution about additional rate cuts next year in the face of stubborn inflation. That's less than three months ago when they were projecting a full percentage point in rate reductions …

The RBA is preparing for all economic scenarios, including an interest rate hike
3 months, 1 week ago

The RBA is preparing for all economic scenarios, including an interest rate hike

ABC  

The Reserve Bank may have dropped the phrase "not ruling anything in or out" in its interest rates commentary, but that does not mean an interest rate hike is completely out of the question. That is because, as Dr Hunter explained, it would mean the RBA's key policy goal of achieving its mid-point annual inflation target of 2.5 per cent …

Australia's unemployment rate falls to 3.9pc in November, its lowest level since March
3 months, 1 week ago

Australia's unemployment rate falls to 3.9pc in November, its lowest level since March

ABC  

Australia's unemployment rate fell to 3.9 per cent in November, down from 4.1 per cent in October. "The only downside to Australia's remarkably strong job market is that any hope of a near-term interest rate cut is over," said Callam Pickering, APAC economist at global job site Indeed. "Today's blockbuster November employment report seemingly pushes back — yet again — …

Major blow for Aussies just before Christmas as Reserve Bank makes interest rate decision
3 months, 1 week ago

Major blow for Aussies just before Christmas as Reserve Bank makes interest rate decision

Daily Mail  

Australian home borrowers have been dealt a severe blow just before Christmas with the Reserve Bank denying them a rate cut. Governor Michele Bullock gave a strong hint rate cuts could be months away with inflation still too high, ahead of an election next year. Australian home borrowers have been dealt a severe blow just before Christmas with the Reserve …

Reserve Bank keeps interest rates on hold in December but leaves door open to a February cut
3 months, 1 week ago

Reserve Bank keeps interest rates on hold in December but leaves door open to a February cut

ABC  

The Reserve Bank has left interest rates on hold in December for a ninth-straight meeting, but opened the door to a rate cut as soon as February. This is a change in language from the board's November statement, which said it needed to "remain vigilant to upside risks to inflation" and was "not ruling anything in or out". "While the …

The politics of the RBA's independence means a struggle over Australia's economic outlook is being fought in the shadows
3 months, 3 weeks ago

The politics of the RBA's independence means a struggle over Australia's economic outlook is being fought in the shadows

ABC  

When the prime minister fronted the media just after 8am on Friday, the sense of elation was palpable. We now live in a world where the sainted independence of the RBA is such that the treasurer can't even be seen to be giving it a few "helpful suggestions" about interest rates. He says for the RBA's wage forecast to be …

RBA Governor Michele Bullock rejects suggestion there's too much government spending in Australia, saying things could be 'much worse' without it
3 months, 3 weeks ago

RBA Governor Michele Bullock rejects suggestion there's too much government spending in Australia, saying things could be 'much worse' without it

ABC  

Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock has rejected the argument there's too much government spending in Australia right now, saying it is helping to keep the economy on an "even keel" and things could be much worse without it. Ms Bullock said the private sector was growing "very slowly" in Australia at the moment, with consumption per capita declining, and government …

Why Australia is lagging the pack on rate cuts
4 months, 1 week ago

Why Australia is lagging the pack on rate cuts

ABC  

At last, some good news. Despite core inflation still sitting well above target, there's a better than even chance the official cash rate will be cut within weeks. But when it came to the all-important core inflation measure, America's came in at 3.3 per cent, again just a couple of points below us at 3.5 per cent. Immediately after the …

Leading economist Nouriel Roubini warns Donald Trump's economic policies could lead to slower economic growth and inflation
4 months, 1 week ago

Leading economist Nouriel Roubini warns Donald Trump's economic policies could lead to slower economic growth and inflation

ABC  

Economist Nouriel Roubini has warned that if Donald Trump's economic ideas are followed to the letter, America's economy could be hit by "stagflation". "Some of the policies of Trump might increase growth and reduce inflation, being pro-business low-tax rates for the corporate sector, deregulation, and more production of fossil fuels," he said. "Tariffs and trade wars, significant restrictions to migration, …

Big hint Anthony Albanese is responsible for you missing out on a rate cut - with Australia's most powerful banker blaming government spending for inflation
4 months, 2 weeks ago

Big hint Anthony Albanese is responsible for you missing out on a rate cut - with Australia's most powerful banker blaming government spending for inflation

Daily Mail  

Australia's most powerful banker has given a strong hint that excessive government spending is to blame for high inflation, ruling out rate cuts until 2025. Australia's most powerful banker has given a strong hint excessive government spending is to blame for high inflation - and therefore no rate cuts While headline inflation has fallen to a three-and-a-half year low of …

Sharply rising bond rates could stem Wall Street's 'relief rally' and push interest rate cuts further into the future
4 months, 2 weeks ago

Sharply rising bond rates could stem Wall Street's 'relief rally' and push interest rate cuts further into the future

ABC  

The apparent roar of approval was almost deafening. It's a world that, down the track, promises a return of inflation and permanently higher interest rates as America shifts to a more protectionist global stance that punishes China and, by extension, hurts Australia. Since mid-September, US money markets almost inexplicably have begun forecasting a rise in interest rates. The bond is …

Interest rates might fall in February … but don't bet the house on it
4 months, 2 weeks ago

Interest rates might fall in February … but don't bet the house on it

ABC  

It's the hope that kills you. Rate cuts may not come until autumn, if they come at all Now even a February rate cut is looking unlikely, according to the money markets, which are pricing just 20 per cent chance of a cut, despite all four big banks and many other local economists forecasting it. Markets are pricing in a …

Reserve Bank keeps interest rates at 4.35pc for eighth-straight meeting despite lower inflation
4 months, 2 weeks ago

Reserve Bank keeps interest rates at 4.35pc for eighth-straight meeting despite lower inflation

ABC  

The Reserve Bank of Australia has kept interest rates on hold at 4.35 per cent for its eighth-straight meeting, despite inflation falling to its lowest level in almost four years. In a statement, the RBA said while inflation has "fallen substantially" since it peaked in 2022, underlying inflation remained too high at 3.5 per cent in the September quarter. The …

Who is to blame for Australia's inflation problem and stubbornly high interest rates?
4 months, 3 weeks ago

Who is to blame for Australia's inflation problem and stubbornly high interest rates?

ABC  

What, or more precisely who, is to blame for the inflation episode that has up-ended our lives for the past three years? In all the noise this week about electricity prices, and the federal government assistance that has temporarily kept energy bills in check, we've overlooked one of the persistent driving forces behind our elevated inflation. Interestingly, both relate to …

The cheapest home loan interest rate in Australia as banks slash rates
5 months, 2 weeks ago

The cheapest home loan interest rate in Australia as banks slash rates

Daily Mail  

Australian borrowers tempted by lower fixed rate mortgages should not jump in too soon, amid predictions of even better deals on offer in 2025. Macquarie Bank on Thursday slashed its two and three-year fixed rates by 20 basis points to 5.39 per cent - now Australia's lowest mortgage rate outside of a green loan. But their lowest fixed rates are …

No RBA rate cut yet, but Governor Bullock is about to find the pressure overwhelming
5 months, 3 weeks ago

No RBA rate cut yet, but Governor Bullock is about to find the pressure overwhelming

ABC  

Who'd want to be Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock? Reserve Bank keeps interest rates on hold at 4.35pc Photo shows Reserve Bank of Australia generic The RBA has kept interest rates on hold at 4.35 per cent, saying inflation is still too high to start cutting rates. The Reserve Bank board has decided to keep the cash rate steady at …

PETER VAN ONSELEN: Which of these statements about the Australian economy is true? 1) Australia has won the war on inflation 2) Interest rates are too high 3) The country is run by a bunch of muppets
5 months, 3 weeks ago

PETER VAN ONSELEN: Which of these statements about the Australian economy is true? 1) Australia has won the war on inflation 2) Interest rates are too high 3) The country is run by a bunch of muppets

Daily Mail  

I used to enjoy a good muppet show as a kid, but the muppet show we'll see tomorrow when the latest inflation data gets revealed will be far less edifying. RBA Governor Michele Bullock will see through tomorrow's headline inflation figure And that underlying figure will be higher than the top end of the Reserve Bank's target range. The underlying …

Reserve Bank keeps interest rates on hold at 4.35pc, ignoring political pressure for cut
5 months, 3 weeks ago

Reserve Bank keeps interest rates on hold at 4.35pc, ignoring political pressure for cut

ABC  

The Reserve Bank has left interest rates on hold at 4.35 per cent. Earlier this month, Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the RBA's rate hikes were "smashing the economy", and former Labor treasurer Wayne Swan accused the RBA of "putting economic dogma over rational decision-making" by refusing to cut rates at this point in the cycle. "With the labour market still …

These numbers are the clues to the Reserve Bank's puzzle: when will interest rates go down?
6 months ago

These numbers are the clues to the Reserve Bank's puzzle: when will interest rates go down?

ABC  

Perhaps no question matters more to Australians worn down by three years of relentless cost pressures: when will the Reserve Bank cut interest rates? But not too much – which is why when inflation shoots high, the Reserve Bank raises interest rates to suppress demand by making it more expensive to borrow and spend. But the Reserve Bank prefers a …

How the US Federal Reserve rate cut could impact the race for the White House between Harris and Trump
6 months ago

How the US Federal Reserve rate cut could impact the race for the White House between Harris and Trump

ABC  

The US Federal Reserve has cut rates in a dramatic move that will have a major impact on the American economy and could help determine who occupies the White House for the next four years. By cutting rates by half a per cent, the Fed has signalled it thinks the battle against the high inflation that has plagued the US …

Why is the US cutting interest rates? What does it mean for Australia?
6 months ago

Why is the US cutting interest rates? What does it mean for Australia?

ABC  

The US Federal Reserve has cut interest rates overnight in an important move for the global economy. Economists predicted the Fed would want to start cutting rates before inflation hits 2 per cent because there's a long lag time between interest rate movements and their effect on the economy. It means the Reserve Bank's cash rate target, which sits at …

The Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates in a big moment for the economy
6 months ago

The Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates in a big moment for the economy

NPR  

The Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates in a big moment for the economy toggle caption Win McNamee/Getty Images North America The Federal Reserve moved aggressively Wednesday to start cutting interest rates as its single-minded focus on fighting inflation gives way to a growing interest in protecting the job market. On average, members of the Fed's rate-setting committee expect borrowing …

Why the Reserve Bank will be forced to cut rates before year's end
6 months, 1 week ago

Why the Reserve Bank will be forced to cut rates before year's end

ABC  

Until just a few weeks ago, it seemed as though the developed world had pulled off what once was thought to be the impossible. And yet, despite this mounting evidence of a critical economic slump, there remains a rump of high-profile economists openly criticising the Reserve Bank of Australia's reluctance to push interest rates above 5 per cent. Parliament House …

Is it the Reserve Bank's fault that some people might have to sell their homes?
6 months, 2 weeks ago

Is it the Reserve Bank's fault that some people might have to sell their homes?

ABC  

Have some people forgotten? RBA governor Michele Bullock says more people are seeking help from community organisations as the economy slows down, but the fight against inflation must be won. Ms Bullock told her audience that she knew higher rates were contributing to pain for some people at the moment, but the RBA's job was to get inflation lower, because …

Labor is leaning into an assault on the 'barbarians' at the bank. It may be great politics, but the economics are trickier
6 months, 2 weeks ago

Labor is leaning into an assault on the 'barbarians' at the bank. It may be great politics, but the economics are trickier

ABC  

There's plenty of buyer's remorse inside Labor these days. Treasurer Jim Chalmers has blamed successive interest rate rises for "smashing the economy", as the government braces for more weak economic figures due this week. Failure to bring inflation back to the bank's 2 per cent to 3 per cent target range would ultimately force the Reserve Bank to "slow the …

Australia's economy growing at slowest pace since 1990s recession, as households cut back on spending
6 months, 2 weeks ago

Australia's economy growing at slowest pace since 1990s recession, as households cut back on spending

ABC  

Australia's economy grew by 0.2 per cent in the June quarter, and 1 per cent over the last year, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. But the RBA's latest forecasts anticipated that Australia's economy would record an annual growth rate of 0.9 per cent in the June quarter, as a consequence of its attempt to squeeze inflation out of …

The RBA is making confusion about inflation and the cost of living even worse
6 months, 3 weeks ago

The RBA is making confusion about inflation and the cost of living even worse

ABC  

There's a paradox about the way we respond to threats to the cost of living. At the same time, when the cost of living climbs enough to push inflation beyond the Reserve Bank's target, the bank pushes up interest rates in an attempt to drive measured inflation down. Sharp interest rate increases are a problem The response of the Reserve …

The US is about to start cutting interest rates, so expect Australia to follow
6 months, 3 weeks ago

The US is about to start cutting interest rates, so expect Australia to follow

ABC  

Just three weeks ago, Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock declared interest rate cuts unlikely in the next six months. But if there was any doubt about what's going to happen to global interest rates, the US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell removed it on Saturday. Rate cuts by the US Fed and other central banks will create a near-irresistible pressure …

Why some banks are cutting interest rates for term deposits and home loans when the Reserve Bank isn't
6 months, 3 weeks ago

Why some banks are cutting interest rates for term deposits and home loans when the Reserve Bank isn't

ABC  

Some of Australia's biggest banks found themselves in the headlines this week after confirming that they were reducing a handful of their interest rates. The rate cuts however weren't universally applied: they affected term deposits with some banks and home loans with others, and came days after the Reserve Bank of Australia reiterated it wasn't rushing to lower interest rates …

Why Reserve Bank of Australia boss Michele Bullock is refusing to consider cutting rates soon - even though mortgage holders in New Zealand, Canada, UK and EU have already had some relief
7 months, 1 week ago

Why Reserve Bank of Australia boss Michele Bullock is refusing to consider cutting rates soon - even though mortgage holders in New Zealand, Canada, UK and EU have already had some relief

Daily Mail  

The woman who decides the fate of millions of mortgage holders has declared a rate cut won't be happening anytime soon - despite what other countries have done this year. Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock told a parliamentary hearing on Friday that Australia would not be copying the approach of other central banks that have cut rates this year, with …

RBA Governor delivers another blow to Aussies with a mortgage - and why you shouldn't expect rate cuts anytime soon
7 months, 2 weeks ago

RBA Governor delivers another blow to Aussies with a mortgage - and why you shouldn't expect rate cuts anytime soon

Daily Mail  

Australia's most powerful banker has aggressively scotched expectations of rate cuts by Christmas - despite global concerns about an American recession and weak local economic activity. In the media conference afterwards, Governor Michele Bullock stressed a rate cut wasn't happening soon - despite the Reserve Bank statement emphasing the risk of an economic slowdown and weaker gross domestic product 'Given …

With rates on hold again, the government and the public hold their breath. What comes next?
7 months, 2 weeks ago

With rates on hold again, the government and the public hold their breath. What comes next?

ABC  

The Reserve Bank's decision to leave interest rates unchanged is the latest in a series of fizzers. RBA governor Michele Bullock did take the unusual step of telling us we should not expect a rate cut in the next six months, taking us out to at least February next year. RBA Board keeps interest rates at 4.35 per cent Photo …

Why headline inflation numbers are masking the confronting financial reality facing many households
7 months, 2 weeks ago

Why headline inflation numbers are masking the confronting financial reality facing many households

ABC  

There won't be protest marches in the streets when the Reserve Bank of Australia makes its next decision on interest rates. In the lead-up to Wednesday's inflation reading for the June quarter, there was speculation that if it came in hot, above 4 per cent, a rate rise would be on the cards. In the end, the "headline" annual rate …

Why this past year has been one of the WORST ever for Australian businesses - as they go bust at a record rate
7 months, 2 weeks ago

Why this past year has been one of the WORST ever for Australian businesses - as they go bust at a record rate

Daily Mail  

Beautician Giulia Teaupa says she almost closed her business as the most aggressive interest rate hikes in a generation came close to crippling her financially. Giulia Teaupa, who runs Beautician Australia in the Sydney suburb of Miranda, was very close to insolvency as higher interest rates meant she had fewer customers But she was fortunate, having managed to stave off …

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