Where’s the recession at?
Raw StoryIf a tree doesn’t fall in a forest, you can be sure lots of economists will have predicted that a tree was absolutely going to fall. But it forged gamely ahead: “More economists think a 2023 downturn may come later than they thought.” If you constantly predict a recession, you’ll eventually be right, just like you’ll be right sometimes if you always predict rainy days. As one particularly egregious example, a 2014 study found that economists “completely failed to anticipate the fall in GDP and employment” in 2008 — the year of the housing bubble and the Great Recession. The Fed raising rates is why so many economists have been predicting a recession — even though so far we haven’t had one. Instead of trying to anticipate market fluctuations, we need to accept that we don’t know what’s going to happen, and create programs that help people weather bad outcomes Universal free healthcare, direct payments to keep children out of poverty, free college so people can make low-risk investments in the future — programs such as these would reduce our reliance on economic predictions, because we’d be less vulnerable when those predictions go awry.
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