RBI must revise its inflation target range -- upwards
Live MintLast year, the finance ministry and Reserve Bank of India agreed to maintain our inflation target at 4%, with a 2% variation on either side as the tolerance limit, from 1 April 2021 to 31 March 2026. Unless RBI recalibrates the model with new data or rethinks the methodology, it is possible that the current inflation target rate “imparts a deflationary bias to monetary policy because it will go into overkill relative to what the economy can intrinsically bear in order to achieve the target," the paper states. Moreover, Keynes in his inflationary gap analysis proposed that crisis-driven public capital expenditure usually means front-loaded capex, which in turn causes aggregate expenditure to outstrip aggregate output, causing an inflation gap. The analysis portends that the Indian economy is now in the second phase under the Friedman principal and inflation will continue to outstrip expectations until: 1) government borrowings and hence capex is curtailed; 2) Interest rates are increased with impunity ; and 3) Taxes are increased to reduce incremental resources available with the public. Nevertheless, RBI must prepare for a considerably long haul of high inflation and therefore raise its inflation target range for the time being.