Brokerages see uncertain 2025 on worries over potential Trump tariffs

Dec 17 - Uncertainties around U.S. policies may slow global economic growth modestly in 2025, according to major brokerages. They expect U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's proposed tariffs to fuel volatility across global markets, spurring inflationary pressures and, in turn, limiting the scope for major central banks to ease monetary policy. World economies and equity markets have had a robust year, with global growth expected to average 3.1% this year, a Reuters poll published in October showed. Following are forecasts from some top banks on economic growth, inflation and the performance of major asset classes in 2025: Forecasts for stocks, currencies and bonds: Brokerage S&P 500 U.S. 10-year EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CNY target yield target UBS Global 6400 3.80% 1.04 145 7.60 Research Goldman Sachs 6500 4.25% 1.03 12-months 12-months) ) UBS Global 6600 4.00% 1.12 145 7.50 Wealth Management Wells Fargo 6500-6700 4.50%-5.00% 0.98-1.02 158-162 Investment Institute Societe 6750 4.50% 1.09 146.3 7.28 Generale Deutsche Bank 7000 4.7% 1.03 7.50 Nomura 135 6.93 4.25% 1.03 Morgan Stanley 6500 3.55% 1.10 138 7.60 J.P.Morgan 6500 4.10% 1.08 148 7.50 BofA Global 6666 4.25% 1.10 160 7.40 Research Wells Fargo 4.00% 0.98 154 7.60 BMO Capital 6700 Markets Jefferies 6000 4.43% Barclays 6600 4.25% Piper Sandler 6600 Berenberg 4.90% 1.08 140 7.20 BNP Paribas 3.65% 1.15 131 Canaccord 6325 Genuity Citigroup 6500 4.20% ING 1.02 160 7.35 HSBC 6700 Evercore ISI 6800 U.S. Inflation: U.S. inflation Brokerage Headline CPI Core PCE Goldman Sachs 2.5% 2.1% J.P.Morgan 2.4% 2.3% Morgan Stanley 2.3% 2.5% Barclays 2.3% 2.5% Wells Fargo 2.6% 2.5% Societe Generale 2.3% 2.5% Deutsche Bank 2.8% 2.6% Wells Fargo 3.3% Investment Institute UBS Global 2.6% Wealth Management Citigroup 2.5% 2.5% BofA Global 2.4% 2.3% Research Berenberg 2.7% 2.6% BNP Paribas 2.3% Nomura 2.7% 3.0% ING 2.4% Wells Fargo 2.6% Jefferies 2.3% 2.5% UBS Global Research 2.5% Real GDP Growth: Real GDP growth forecasts for 2025 Brokerage GLOBAL U.S. CHINA EURO AREA UK INDIA UBS Global 2.9% 1.9% 4.0% 0.9% 1.5% 6.3% Goldman Sachs 2.7% 2.5% 4.5% 0.8% 1.2% 6.3% Barclays 3.0% 2.1% 4% 0.7% 1.2% 7.2% Morgan Stanley 3.0% 2.1% 4.0% 1.0% 1.4% 6.5% J.P.Morgan 2.4% 2.2% 3.9% 0.8% 1.0% 6.0% UBS Global Wealth 2.9% 1.9% 4.0% 0.9% 1.5% 6.3% Management Wells Fargo 2.5% 2.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.6% 5.9% Societe Generale 3.3% 2.2% 4.7% 1.0% 1.6% Citigroup 2.2% 1.0% 4.2% 1.1% 1.0% 6.7% Nomura 2.2 4.0% 1.0% 5.8% 2.9% 1.1% BofA Global 3.2% 2.4% 4.5% 0.9% Research 1.5% 7.0% Deutsche Bank 3.1% 2.5% 4.8% 0.8% 1.3% 6.5% Wells Fargo 2.5% Investment 2.6% Institute Berenberg 2.4% 4.5% 1.0% 6.5% 2.6% 1.3% BNP Paribas 2.1% 4.5% 1.5% 1.5% 6.7% Peel Hunt 1.9% 4.4% 1.3% 1.6% 7.0% ING 2.0% 4.6% 0.7% 1.4% Jefferies 2.4% * UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group * Wells Fargo Investment Institute is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank