The app that helped IMF accurately estimate correct number of Bahamas tourists
Live MintOnline searches can help countries predict tourist visits more accurately and give governments a better read on economies that depend on the industry, an International Monetary Fund analysis showed. Combining Google Trends data with traditional forecast models improved accuracy of predicted tourist arrivals to the Bahamas from the U.S by about 30%, according to a working paper by IMF senior economist Serhan Cevik released Friday. “As tourism is the main engine of economic growth in the Bahamas, accurate forecasting of tourist arrivals is critical for informed decision-making by policy makers and businesses," Cevik wrote, adding that the findings, consistent with previous studies, indicate search data can aid real-time surveillance and sharpen forecasts. “Therefore, improving the prediction of tourist arrivals is important for forecasting overall economic growth as well as for effective planning and budgeting by the government and the private sector."
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