Rupee volatility matters less than our broad policy aim
2 years, 2 months ago

Rupee volatility matters less than our broad policy aim

Live Mint  

Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?” “That depends a good deal on where you want to get to.”—Lewis Caroll, Alice in Wonderland The rupee has moved from a rate of ₹74.51 to the US dollar on 1 January 2022, to ₹82.27 at the time of writing this. This has led to concerns regarding rupee volatility and the resultant deleterious effects that such volatility is likely to have on trade and investment, besides India’s overall macroeconomic and financial stability. The dollar-rupee daily rate deviated from the 1-sigma level on 72 days over the January to October 2022 period, compared to 76 days in January-October 2021. We conclude that compared to 2021, rupee volatility has not significantly worsened in dollar terms; if at all, the rupee has demonstrated lower volatility of the deleterious sort in 2022. The volatility has reduced at the 2-sigma movement level, with euro-rupee rates deviating from the 2-sigma level over 7 days in 2021 compared to 1 day during January-October 2022.

India Rate Rupee 2022 Level Dollar Volatility 2021 Compared Rupee Volatility  broad  2021  compared  aim  rate  level  dollar  januaryoctober  policy  matters  2022  volatility  rupee  days

History of this topic

Rupee falls for 10th straight week, hits all-time low amid uncertainty over Trump impact
4 days, 21 hours ago

Rupee falls for 10th straight week, hits all-time low amid uncertainty over Trump impact

Firstpost  

The development comes amid a strenghtening US dollar as well as uncertainty over potential economic policies from former US President Donald Trump weighing on global markets The Indian rupee fell for the 10th consecutive week, hitting a record low of 85.97 to the dollar on Friday. The development comes amid a strenghtening US dollar as well as uncertainty over potential …

Why is the rupee weakening against the dollar? | Explained
1 week, 3 days ago

Why is the rupee weakening against the dollar? | Explained

The Hindu  

The story so far: In the last week of December, 2024, the rupee breached the 85 mark against the U.S. dollar, touching an all-time low of 85.81. The price of any currency in the foreign exchange market is determined by the demand for the currency vis-a-vis its supply. One of the most important determinants of the supply of a currency …

Rupee expected to weaken more in coming months
1 week, 5 days ago

Rupee expected to weaken more in coming months

Live Mint  

Mumbai: The rupee is expected to further weaken in the coming months as Trump’s presidency strengthens the dollar at least in the near-term, experts said, adding that the central bank's interventions in the currency market are likely to ease. “There is a pending depreciation pressure visible on the rupee and that is seen in the REER overvaluation of around 8%," …

Rupee Volatility Surge Puts RBI’s Currency Strategy in Focus
2 weeks, 2 days ago

Rupee Volatility Surge Puts RBI’s Currency Strategy in Focus

Live Mint  

A gauge of the Indian rupee’s volatility jumped to its highest level in over a year, fueling speculation that the nation’s central bank may be easing its tight grip on the currency amid a strong dollar. The rupee’s one-month implied volatility versus the greenback rose to as much as 4.09% on Monday, the highest since August 2023. “We think the …

Mint Quick Edit | Has the rupee weakened or strengthened?
2 weeks, 5 days ago

Mint Quick Edit | Has the rupee weakened or strengthened?

Live Mint  

On the face of it, the Indian rupee seems to be weakening, having fallen to a low of around 85.26 to the dollar. The rupee’s real effective exchange rate, which measures its value relative to a basket of trade-relevant currencies, is at a peak. A part of the rupee’s relative strength may be attributed to market intervention by the Reserve …

The bad and good of rupee weakening against dollar
3 weeks, 1 day ago

The bad and good of rupee weakening against dollar

India Today  

The rupee, on December 19, fell to a record low against the dollar, breaching the 85 mark for the first time. Although the rupee has been seeing much volatility in recent months, it saw a big drop against the dollar ever since Donald Trump won the US presidential election, falling from 84.11 to a dollar on November 5 to 85.07 …

Prepare for a weaker, volatile rupee in 2025
1 month ago

Prepare for a weaker, volatile rupee in 2025

New Indian Express  

The rupee has been under pressure ever since Donald Trump has won the US presidential election, triggering capital outflow from India. Trump’s economic policies are likely to stoke higher inflation resulting in higher bond yields in the US. The capital outflow from Indian and other emerging markets has also been caused by the expectation that Trump’s policies will benefit the …

Rupee's slide: What it means for economy, markets, and you
1 month, 1 week ago

Rupee's slide: What it means for economy, markets, and you

India Today  

The rupee’s recent tumble to a record low of 84.73 against the US dollar has raised concerns about its impact on the economy and people’s daily lives. Although the rupee has recovered slightly today due to gains in the Chinese yuan, the recent drop reflects a confluence of global and domestic factors, creating ripple effects that extend beyond currency markets. …

INR vs USD: Indian National Rupee hits record low of 84.38 against the US Dollar; Will it depreciate further?
2 months ago

INR vs USD: Indian National Rupee hits record low of 84.38 against the US Dollar; Will it depreciate further?

Live Mint  

The Indian rupee hit a record low on Monday against the US dollar, reflecting broader weakness among Asian currencies under pressure following Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. elections. The dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading higher by 0.05% at 105.05, near the four-month peak achieved last week following Trump’s win. …

Rupee may depreciate 8-10 per cent during Trump 2.0, says SBI report
2 months ago

Rupee may depreciate 8-10 per cent during Trump 2.0, says SBI report

New Indian Express  

NEW DELHI: The rupee may depreciate 8-10 per cent against the US dollar during the Trump 2.0 regime, said a SBI research report, even as the local currency hit its all-time low on Monday. The report, titled US Presidential Election 2024: How Trump 2.0 Impacts India's and Global Economy, emphasised that the rupee can have a brief spell of depreciation …

India must prepare to curb volatility risks of international rupee: RBI Deputy Governor
1 year, 10 months ago

India must prepare to curb volatility risks of international rupee: RBI Deputy Governor

The Hindu  

India needs to gear up to manage the inevitable volatility that will emerge in the foreign exchange market as the country progresses further towards internationalisation of the rupee, a Deputy Governor at the Reserve Bank of India said recently. "It is now widely accepted that while internationalisation and a freer capital account comes with its own set of benefits, it …

Indian rupee ends 2022 as worst-performing Asian currency
2 years ago

Indian rupee ends 2022 as worst-performing Asian currency

Live Mint  

The Indian rupee ended 2022 as the worst-performing Asian currency with a fall of 11.3%, its biggest annual decline since 2013, as the dollar rocketed on the U.S. Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary policy stance to tame inflation. Heading into 2023, market participants believe the rupee would trade with an appreciation bias, finding relief from easing commodity prices and hopeful of …

RBI should allow gradual rupee weakening, use fx reserves ’judiciously’: CEA
2 years, 2 months ago

RBI should allow gradual rupee weakening, use fx reserves ’judiciously’: CEA

Live Mint  

India's central bank should allow rupee to depreciate gradually and use foreign exchange reserves judiciously, the government's chief economic adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran on Monday. Nageswaran comment on the rupee and foreign exchange reserves is the first official government comment since concerns about dwindling currency reserves emerged earlier this year. India's foreign currency reserves have fallen from a peak of …

How rupee may move against dollar in November?
2 years, 2 months ago

How rupee may move against dollar in November?

Live Mint  

Indian currency ended the week on a flat note and stood around 82.44 against the dollar on Friday. On the weakening in the rupee, Sriram Iyer, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities said that the primary reason for the depreciation is hawkish Fed has pushed the dollar to two-decade highs. For the rest of November, Reliance Securities expert believes the …

FM Nirmala Sitharaman Is Right: Rupee Hasn’t Weakened, Dollar Has Strengthened - News18
2 years, 2 months ago

FM Nirmala Sitharaman Is Right: Rupee Hasn’t Weakened, Dollar Has Strengthened - News18

News 18  

On 16 October 2022, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman made a statement: “I look at it not as rupee sliding but dollar strengthening.” Needless to say, this statement created a political outrage, with former Finance Minister P Chidambaram sarcastically remarking: “FM said that the rupee is not weakening but the dollar is strengthening. Hence for this analysis, the performance of the …

Higher rates, weaker rupee can restore India’s trade balance
2 years, 2 months ago

Higher rates, weaker rupee can restore India’s trade balance

Live Mint  

On the one hand, India’s foreign exchange reserves remain elevated at $533 billion—a respectable 8.6 months of goods import cover—even after a fall of about $100 billion since the start of the year. India’s current account deficit likely widened to about 5% of gross domestic product in the quarter ended September on the back of elevated oil imports and slowing …

Rupee volatility matters less than our broad policy aim
2 years, 2 months ago

Rupee volatility matters less than our broad policy aim

Live Mint  

Our currency has been less volatile this year than in 2021 and global trade integration calls for a freer float Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?" {{^adFree}} {{/adFree}} We compared the changes in volatility of the rupee vis-à-vis the dollar for the period January–October 2021 and 2022, drawing on Yahoo Finance data. The …

Falling reserves and the bogey of the RBI’s role
2 years, 3 months ago

Falling reserves and the bogey of the RBI’s role

The Hindu  

There is a widespread misconception that the Reserve Bank of India has been depleting India’s foreign exchange reserves to defend the rupee. The RBI cannot simply fritter away India’s forex reserves, held mostly in dollars, by charging its “nostro” account with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York. Central bank as regulator, player and jury The RBI’s intervention …

With the rupee under pressure, what next
2 years, 3 months ago

With the rupee under pressure, what next

The Hindu  

Even without getting into any quantitative measure of vulnerability, it is quite clear that the rupee is under pressure. In the last one year, it depreciated by over 10%, has crossed the psychological marker of ₹80 to a dollar, and India’s foreign exchange reserves are down by more than $100 billion. Arguably, the pressure on the rupee has softened, if …

Stop Rupee from scoring century, Congress says
2 years, 3 months ago

Stop Rupee from scoring century, Congress says

The Hindu  

​​ The Congress on Tuesday attacked the Centre over the depreciating value of the rupee against the dollar and said the only request to Prime Minister Narendra Modi is to stop the rupee from scoring a century. Addressing a press conference at the party headquarters here, Congress Spokesperson Supriya Shrinate said for the first time in history, the rupee is …

Rupee Has Held Up Very Well Against Dollar Compared to Other Currencies: FM Sitharaman
2 years, 3 months ago

Rupee Has Held Up Very Well Against Dollar Compared to Other Currencies: FM Sitharaman

News 18  

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Saturday said the rupee has “held back very well” against the US dollar when compared to other currencies. Against the backdrop of the rupee dropping to a lifetime low against the greenback, Sitharaman said the Reserve Bank and the finance ministry are keeping a very close watch on the situation. The rupee slumped 30 paise …

India Not Defending Rupee, Currency Can Take Care of Itself: CEA V Anantha Nageswaran
2 years, 4 months ago

India Not Defending Rupee, Currency Can Take Care of Itself: CEA V Anantha Nageswaran

News 18  

Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran on Tuesday said India is not defending the rupee and the Reserve Bank of India is taking necessary steps to ensure that the movement of the rupee is gradual and in line with market trends. “The RBI is making sure that whatever direction the rupee is moving in line with the market trends is …

Policy cues from a depreciating rupee
2 years, 4 months ago

Policy cues from a depreciating rupee

Live Mint  

The Indian exchange rate regime underwent a big change in the early 1990s. As RIL aims big, investors have eye on risk What vehicle loans tell us about cars Indians want Bollywood box-office duds worry PVR, Inox Adani only one among the 10 richest to see net worth rise In the absence of capital flows, the exchange rate is largely …

RBI ’correct’ to use forex reserves to tackle rupee volatility: Economic Adviser
2 years, 5 months ago

RBI ’correct’ to use forex reserves to tackle rupee volatility: Economic Adviser

Live Mint  

The Reserve Bank of India is justified in using the country's foreign exchange reserves to smooth out volatility in the rupee's moves against the dollar, a member of the Economic Advisory Council said on Monday. "Longer term, we need to maintain overall macro-stability and allow the cycle to play itself out," said Sanyal, who was previously India's chief economic adviser. …

Rupee faces risk of further decline to 82 vs USD in near term: Experts
2 years, 5 months ago

Rupee faces risk of further decline to 82 vs USD in near term: Experts

Live Mint  

Indian rupee may further depreciate to 82 to a dollar in the near term due to widening of trade deficit and expected aggressive rate hike by the US Fed later this week to tame record high inflation, economists said. Economists are of the opinion that the rupee after touching a life-time low may settle around 78 to a dollar by …

Currency caution: The Hindu Editorial on the Indian rupee’s depreciation
2 years, 5 months ago

Currency caution: The Hindu Editorial on the Indian rupee’s depreciation

The Hindu  

The Indian rupee is experiencing its worst slump in four years. While the Indian currency is not alone in faring poorly against the greenback, with even the historically strong euro and the British pound taking a hammering and weakening by more than the rupee has, the fact that other currencies too have appreciably lost value against the dollar can only …

Despite pressures, the Indian rupee’s remarkable resilience
2 years, 5 months ago

Despite pressures, the Indian rupee’s remarkable resilience

The Hindu  

The Indian rupee has depreciated by around 7% against the U.S. dollar, since the start of the year, in response to various domestic and global factors. Specifically, a widening current account deficit, persistent risk-off sentiment as a result of geopolitical tensions, ‘a strengthening dollar index, and continuous sell-off by foreign portfolio investors have all put pressure on the rupee’. Elevated …

'No need to be 'overtly' worried about fall in rupee,' says Economic Affairs Secretary Ajay Seth
2 years, 5 months ago

'No need to be 'overtly' worried about fall in rupee,' says Economic Affairs Secretary Ajay Seth

Firstpost  

The rupee for the first time touched a low level of 80 against the US dollar in intra-day spot trading at the interbank foreign exchange market on Monday New Delhi: Economic Affairs Secretary Ajay Seth on Tuesday said that the rupee is managed well and there is nothing to be “overtly” worried about the depreciation in the domestic currency against …

Costlier Oil Prices, Tight Financial Conditions, FPI Outflows Responsible For Rupee Fall: Sitharaman
2 years, 5 months ago

Costlier Oil Prices, Tight Financial Conditions, FPI Outflows Responsible For Rupee Fall: Sitharaman

News 18  

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Monday said global factors, such as a surge in crude oil prices and tight financial conditions, along with foreign portfolio investment outflows, are responsible for the fall in the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the US dollar. “Global factors such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, soaring crude oil prices and tightening of global financial …

Rupee's historic plunge: How is it impacting people | Explained
2 years, 6 months ago

Rupee's historic plunge: How is it impacting people | Explained

India TV News  

Rupee's historic plunge: The Indian rupee nearing 80 to a US dollar will make imports of items from crude oil to electronic goods, overseas education and foreign travel costlier while raising fears that the inflation situation could worsen. As per the latest data, the country's imports expanded by 57.55 per cent to USD 66.31 billion in June compared to the …

Why the fall of the rupee should have us all worried
2 years, 6 months ago

Why the fall of the rupee should have us all worried

The Hindu  

Published : Jul 10, 2022 18:00 IST ALL is not quiet on India’s external economic front. In fact, in a recent interview to Business Standard, Duvvuri Subbarao, a former RBI Governor, pointed out that “even as the rupee has depreciated vis-à-vis the dollar, it has actually strengthened against other hard currencies such as the euro and the yen” and that …

India’s currency could keep falling without failing us
2 years, 6 months ago

India’s currency could keep falling without failing us

Live Mint  

The Indian rupee has historically weakened against the US dollar, but bouts of volatility never fail to set alarm bells ringing. A ‘shock’ could take the form of sharp interest rate increases by systemically important central banks, such as the US Federal Reserve, geopolitical developments, oil price volatility, or a financial crisis—all of which create a risk-off scenario, leading to …

India to Address Volatility in Rupee Against Dollar as it tumbles to Record Low: Official
2 years, 6 months ago

India to Address Volatility in Rupee Against Dollar as it tumbles to Record Low: Official

News 18  

NEW DELHI:India is trying to “address volatility” in the Indian rupee that has tumbled to record lows against the dollar in recent weeks, a government official said on Monday, amid concerns of a widening trade deficit and sell off of assets by foreign investors. As of 1013 GMT, the partially convertible rupee was trading at 78.95/96 per dollar, close to …

Explainer | The free fall of the rupee
2 years, 6 months ago

Explainer | The free fall of the rupee

The Hindu  

The story so far: The Indian rupee hit an all-time low against the U.S. dollar this week weakening past the 79 rupees to a dollar mark and selling as low as 79.05 against the dollar on Wednesday. So, for instance, when there is great enthusiasm among foreign investors to invest in India, it can lead to an increase in the …

A weakening rupee and its broad implications on our economy
2 years, 6 months ago

A weakening rupee and its broad implications on our economy

Live Mint  

The Indian rupee has weakened by about 5% over the course this year so far, in response to domestic and global factors. The rupee is not alone: It could very well be said that the latest turn of events in currency markets is more of a dollar strengthening situation, as the US Federal Reserve’s rate-hiking spree has bolstered the dollar …

India's Forex Reserves Continuous Decline: Falling Rupee, FPI Outflows Worsen Situation
2 years, 6 months ago

India's Forex Reserves Continuous Decline: Falling Rupee, FPI Outflows Worsen Situation

News 18  

In a third straight week of decline, India’s forex reserves have fallen $5.87 billion in the week ended June 17, amid continued outflow of foreign portfolio investments due to growing concerns over global slowdown. Foreign Investment Outflows FPIs have been incessantly withdrawing money from Indian equities since October 2021, which is depleting India’s foreign exchange reserves majorly. Continuous Rupee Decline …

Data | Hitting record lows: What is driving the rupee’s fall?
2 years, 8 months ago

Data | Hitting record lows: What is driving the rupee’s fall?

The Hindu  

On Monday, the Indian rupee slumped to an all-time low of 77.36 against the U.S. dollar. India’s foreign reserves have also been dented due to the central bank’s intervention in the spot market to prop up the Indian unit. Click to remove AMP mode Intense selling The rupee’s fall has been accentuated by an exodus of foreign portfolio investors from …

India's economic challenges amid soaring crude oil price
2 years, 10 months ago

India's economic challenges amid soaring crude oil price

Business Standard  

The fallout of the Russia-Ukraine conflict might prove to be severe for India.The rupee is close to 77 a dollar. Despite the Reserve Bank’s attempts to manage this fall, the rupee has been Asia’s worst-performing currency in 2022.According to one financial daily, several brokerages, banks and treasury departments are fearing the rupee might plunge below 80 a dollar.Meanwhile, the crude …

Rupee’s road ahead complicated by rising inflation, covid surge
3 years, 8 months ago

Rupee’s road ahead complicated by rising inflation, covid surge

Live Mint  

MUMBAI: The Indian rupee's near-term fortunes may directly be influenced by the Reserve Bank of India's intent on preventing any further depreciation in the currency as the surge in COVID-19 cases hits jobs and growth, economists and traders said. "INR is likely to trade with a depreciating bias on the back of a stronger dollar, relatively weaker EM currencies, muted …

Wave of foreign money threatens India’s tight grip on rupee
4 years, 1 month ago

Wave of foreign money threatens India’s tight grip on rupee

Live Mint  

A relentless torrent of funds rushing into India’s markets may tip the central bank’s delicate balancing act in 2021. There’s growing consensus among traders and fund managers that the mounting pressures -- particularly the liquidity glut distorting money markets -- may spur the central bank to consider a range of changes, from relaxing its grip on Asia’s worst-performing currency to …

Why has the rupee fallen against the dollar?
4 years, 9 months ago

Why has the rupee fallen against the dollar?

The Hindu  

March 22, 2020 12:02 am | Updated 12:02 am IST The story so far: The rupee slumped on Friday to a record closing low of 75.20 against the U.S. dollar as deepening concerns about the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic sent global investors scurrying to dump most assets, especially emerging market holdings, and opt for cash and the relative …

The Indian Rupee is getting crushed by RBI
5 years, 1 month ago

The Indian Rupee is getting crushed by RBI

Live Mint  

The Reserve Bank of India’s efforts to support the flagging economy are turning out to be a bane for the rupee. Weakness in the rupee despite robust inflows is seen as a sign the central bank wants to curb a sharp appreciation in the currency that can hurt exports. “Higher reserves prove that the central bank is probably making determined …

Global investors keen on rupee denominated assets: RBI
5 years, 4 months ago

Global investors keen on rupee denominated assets: RBI

The Quint  

Mumbai, Aug 26 Global investors have shown appetite for rupee denominated assets in recent times and this trend needs to be strengthened further by policy nudges, Reserve Bank of India Deputy Governor B.P. "The policy regime is also oriented to providing adequate instruments of hedging to all resident economic agents who have exposure to a foreign currency as well as …

Rupee at 74 to a dollar is still better than its peers, says Urjit Patel
6 years, 3 months ago

Rupee at 74 to a dollar is still better than its peers, says Urjit Patel

The Hindu  

On the day the rupee breached the 74-mark against the US dollar for the first time, RBI governor Urjit Patel on Friday reiterated that the domestic currency is still better than its emerging market peers and that the apex bank does not have a target for it. Admitting that the country has not been immune to global spillovers from external …

RBI MPC: India Needs Its Own ‘Operation Twist’ to the Save Rupee?
6 years, 3 months ago

RBI MPC: India Needs Its Own ‘Operation Twist’ to the Save Rupee?

The Quint  

So, how can the RBI go about this ‘Operation Twist’? The RBI could buy more long-term government bonds under its open market operations to pull down yields. Considering the required base money expansion, it is legitimate to expect more open market operation bond purchases to ensure a level of liquidity that is not disruptive to the economy. Together, this could …

Rupee depreciation: Why currency trade with 'vulnerable' countries is the antidote to dependency on US dollar
6 years, 3 months ago

Rupee depreciation: Why currency trade with 'vulnerable' countries is the antidote to dependency on US dollar

Firstpost  

The rupee trade is any day better than the hare-brained idea of curbing non-essential imports which are bound to invite retaliation on a wide front India is mulling a rupee payment mechanism with Russia as part of a broad range of measures aimed at reducing the current account deficit that has widened to more than $80 billion in the first …

Indian rupee crisis: ‘Worst is not yet over’
6 years, 4 months ago

Indian rupee crisis: ‘Worst is not yet over’

Al Jazeera  

Analysts partly attribute the fall of rupee to a global crisis and Trump’s ‘declaration of a trade war’. A strong US dollar and high oil prices, coupled with investors dumping emerging markets’ currencies and a record high current account deficit – a measurement of a country’s trade where the value of its imports exceeds the value of its exports – …

Rupee woes to deepen as India braces for external headwinds
6 years, 4 months ago

Rupee woes to deepen as India braces for external headwinds

Hindustan Times  

India’s rupee owes its tag of Asia’s worst-performing currency this year to the selloff sweeping emerging markets. While foreign currency debt has zoomed, various external vulnerability indicators paint a rather mixed picture, according to the Reserve Bank of India’s annual report. Indeed, data due as early as next week will probably show the nation’s current-account deficit widened in the June …

Limits to RBI’s intervention in the foreign exchange market
6 years, 4 months ago

Limits to RBI’s intervention in the foreign exchange market

Live Mint  

Central bank communication in India is often mistaken to consist only of what the senior management says. Under perfect capital mobility and fixed exchange rates, this coefficient takes a value of -1, since any expansion of the foreign currency assets of the central bank will give rise to an offsetting change in net domestic assets, leaving the stock of money …

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