The stock market has made its prediction about who will win the election
4 years, 1 month ago

The stock market has made its prediction about who will win the election

CNN  

New York CNN Business — The presidential election is just two days away and the stock market has locked-in its prediction, according to one indicator. The stock market has a fairly reliable track record: Since World War II, when the S&P 500 fell in the three months leading up to the November vote during a presidential election year, the incumbent president or party of the outgoing president has lost the election 88% of the time. “Such a blue wave would likely prompt us to upgrade our forecasts,” Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius wrote in a report last month. However, we see this outcome as neutral to slightly positive.” President Donald Trump has repeatedly predicted Democrats would decimate the American economy, and the stock market would crumble if they win in November. The CFRA Presidential Predictor’s only incorrect forecast when the market fell in the three months leading up to an election was in 1956, when incumbent President Dwight Eisenhower defeated Adlai Stevenson despite a 7.7% stock market decline during the Suez Crisis and the Hungarian Uprising.

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History of this topic

Wall Street rises to turn a dismal week into just a bad one
3 days, 20 hours ago

Wall Street rises to turn a dismal week into just a bad one

Associated Press  

NEW YORK — U.S. stocks rose Friday to turn what would have been one of the market’s worst weeks of the year into just a pretty bad one. The threat of higher inflation was one of the reasons Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave this week when the central bank hinted it may deliver fewer cuts to interest rates next year …

The stock market could be a $50 trillion guardrail on Trump
1 month ago

The stock market could be a $50 trillion guardrail on Trump

CNN  

New York CNN — Donald Trump is returning to the White House without many of the guardrails of his first term. More recently, Trump was “euphoric” over the market’s initial surge after his sweeping victory this month, sources told CNN’s Kayla Tausche. Ultimately, the only entity that has real power over the president’s thinking about his agenda is the stock …

The stock market is riding a "red wave" with policy risks, analysts say
1 month, 1 week ago

The stock market is riding a "red wave" with policy risks, analysts say

Salon  

Market analysts say the stock market's momentum following the 2024 election could continue, driven by steady economic growth, strong corporate earnings and expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Stovall cited historical data showing that during similar "red wave" periods, the stock market gained an average of nearly 13% annually and increased 75% of the time. In …

Wall Street continues to roll higher in wake of Trump victory
1 month, 1 week ago

Wall Street continues to roll higher in wake of Trump victory

LA Times  

U.S. stocks rose Monday, led by those seen as benefiting the most from Donald Trump’s election as president, but drops for some high-profile Big Tech stocks kept indexes in check. Several pieces of what’s known as the “Trump trade” also helped drive the market, as investors try to identify which companies will be winners under a second Trump term. Stocks …

How prediction markets saw something the polls and pundits didn’t
1 month, 2 weeks ago

How prediction markets saw something the polls and pundits didn’t

CNN  

A version of this story appeared in CNN Business’ Nightcap newsletter. But over on the betting platform Polymarket, the odds were much more solidly in former President Donald Trump’s favor. The emergence of that so-called Trump whale sparked intense scrutiny of Polymarket over the past several weeks, because it sure looked possible that an anonymous deep-pocketed investor was trying to …

Stocks Hold Trump Election Gains as Dollar Eases: Markets Wrap
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Stocks Hold Trump Election Gains as Dollar Eases: Markets Wrap

Live Mint  

US equity futures maintained their post-Election Day gains and the dollar eased as traders continued to map out Donald Trump’s return to the White House and what it holds for the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path. “What we saw yesterday was the playbook of the Trump trade in action but it’s soon going to evolve,” said Arnaud Girod, head of economics …

Markets close at record highs as Trump is reelected
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Markets close at record highs as Trump is reelected

CNN  

New York CNN — US stocks rocketed higher Wednesday following a decisive and consequential victory for former President Donald Trump in Tuesday’s US presidential election. JPMorgan analysts predicted in a report ahead of Tuesday’s election result that under a “red wave,” stocks stood to gain through the end of 2024, but “the uncertainty around policy execution would become more prominent …

Markets rise on U.S. presidential election's outcome
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Markets rise on U.S. presidential election's outcome

NPR  

Markets rise on U.S. presidential election's outcome U.S. stock markets were poised to soar on Wednesday after former President Donald Trump claimed victory in the presidential race. Elon Musk, an outspoken Trump supporter, saw Tesla shares rise by more than 12% in pre-market trading. The company, which reflects Trump’s Truth Social platform, had seen its DJT stock hammered on Tuesday, …

Trump's historic victory brings storm into market: Stocks, bond yields, bitcoin witnesses phenomenal surge
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Trump's historic victory brings storm into market: Stocks, bond yields, bitcoin witnesses phenomenal surge

India TV News  

New York: The US stock market, Elon Musk’s Tesla, banks and bitcoin are storming higher as investors bet on what Donald Trump’s return to the White House will mean for the economy and world. Stock prices, bond yields and cryptocurrencies like bitcoin surged in the US on Wednesday as voters returned former President Donald Trump to the White House and …

US Stock Market Soars on Election Day as Voters Head to Polls
1 month, 2 weeks ago

US Stock Market Soars on Election Day as Voters Head to Polls

Hindustan Times  

US stock market is ticking higher on Election Day as voters head to polls. The S&P 500 is up 0.4%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 0.2%, and the Nasdaq composite is up 0.6%. The election is the main event, even if the result may not be known for days, weeks or months as officials count all the votes.

Market Impact: How Split Congress Could Shape US Presidential Election
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Market Impact: How Split Congress Could Shape US Presidential Election

ABP News  

The US Presidential Elections will have a significant impact on the stock market, with investors expecting the results to influence the equity market globally. A full sweep by Donald Trump is considered the most positive outcome for equities, but any gridlock would be bearish for spending and could trigger a short-term rally in the stock market. A split Congress could …

Wall Street rallies on election day as economy remains solid
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Wall Street rallies on election day as economy remains solid

LA Times  

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Tuesday. U.S. stocks rallied Tuesday as voters headed to the polls on the last day of the presidential election and as more data piled up showing the economy remains solid. The S&P 500 ended up rising 69.6% from election day 2020 through Monday, following President Biden’s win. In …

Wall Street's Uncertain Response to the 2024 US Presidential Election
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Wall Street's Uncertain Response to the 2024 US Presidential Election

Firstpost  

Wall Street is closely watching the upcoming US presidential election on November 5, 2024, as it could have significant implications for the financial markets. The outcome could bring significant changes to economic policies that impact businesses and investors. While some analysts suggest that the stock market might be hinting at a different story than expected, with the S&P 500 recently …

Americans Can Place Political Bets This Election Cycle
1 month, 3 weeks ago

Americans Can Place Political Bets This Election Cycle

CNN  

In a historic shift, Americans can now place political wagers on who will win the White House. More than $100 million in election bets have been traded on Kalshi, a federally regulated prediction market that was given the green light to offer election betting after a federal appeals court upheld a lower court's order that made way for legal political …

Democrats' Election Could Boost Stock Market Boom: Experts
Trending News
1 month, 3 weeks ago

Democrats' Election Could Boost Stock Market Boom: Experts

Firstpost  

The article explores the potential impact of the upcoming US presidential election on the economy and stock market. It highlights the contrasting visions of the two candidates and how this could influence investor sentiment. While a Democratic win is generally expected to be a continuation of the current economic trajectory, a surprise Republican victory could lead to a stock market …

Democratic Presidential Election: A Tale of Risk and Economic Growth
1 month, 3 weeks ago

Democratic Presidential Election: A Tale of Risk and Economic Growth

Hindustan Times  

The article explores the impact of US presidential elections on the economy and the stock market. It finds that Democratic presidents have historically performed better, with higher average growth and risk premium for stocks. This is attributed to the timing of voters' heightened risk aversion during economic downturns. The article also highlights the interconnectedness of global economies, suggesting that election …

Global stock volatility hits the presidential election, with Trump decrying a ‘Kamala Crash’
4 months, 2 weeks ago

Global stock volatility hits the presidential election, with Trump decrying a ‘Kamala Crash’

Associated Press  

Follow live: Updates from AP’s coverage of the presidential election. Trump’s campaign labeled the Monday drop as a “Kamala Crash,” a message designed to undercut the energy created by the vice president’s entrance into the race. “The panic that we’re seeing in the markets — which may already be subsiding — is an overblown interpretation of the Fed being behind …

Impact of Biden's exit on US markets: More uncertainty will mean more volatility
5 months ago

Impact of Biden's exit on US markets: More uncertainty will mean more volatility

Hindustan Times  

Investors have been amassing wagers on Donald Trump’s return to the White House for weeks, trimming holdings of long-term US bonds and buying Bitcoin, among other things. Assistant Shift Foreman Howard Fewell holds copies of the New York Post front page the day U.S. President Joe Biden announced that he is dropping his reelection bid, at the New York Times …

Will Biden drop out? The biggest question in America is the newest hot market
5 months, 1 week ago

Will Biden drop out? The biggest question in America is the newest hot market

Live Mint  

So is he going to drop out? When the debate started on June 27, Polymarket’s contract on Biden dropping out was trading around 20 cents, which meant the market believed there was roughly a 20% chance of the president stepping aside. Silicon Valley venture capitalists, Wall Street heavyweights and the brash young entrepreneurs building companies around prediction markets say it’s …

Donald Trump or Joe Biden? US stock market expert predicts presidential poll's surprising result basis indices movement
7 months ago

Donald Trump or Joe Biden? US stock market expert predicts presidential poll's surprising result basis indices movement

Hindustan Times  

So who's winning US election, scheduled for 5 November 2024? On the back of a stiff neck on neck competition between Joe Biden and Donald Trump stock market has proven to be a reliable indicator in the past. Recent surveys of prominent prediction markets have shown a wide range of probabilities regarding President Joe Biden's chances of winning re-election, fluctuating …

Stock market clues suggest Trump will lose the upcoming election
7 months, 2 weeks ago

Stock market clues suggest Trump will lose the upcoming election

Daily Mail  

But 2024 may be an exception as inflation weighs on American voters With six months to go until the presidential election, hidden within the stock market may be clues as to who will occupy the White House come January. This year, the S&P 500 has behaved similarly to the way it has done historically when the incumbent president was reelected …

Donald Trump complains: Stock market highs just making ‘rich people richer’
1 year ago

Donald Trump complains: Stock market highs just making ‘rich people richer’

Hindustan Times  

Donald Trump had predicted three years ago that if Joe Biden became the US president in 2020, stock markets would crash. Apparently not, as the former US president asserted that stock markets hitting record highs was just making “rich people richer.” The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a record high last week, topping 37,000 and surpassing the previous record set …

Biden goes into 2024 with the economy getting stronger, but voters feel horrible about it
1 year ago

Biden goes into 2024 with the economy getting stronger, but voters feel horrible about it

Associated Press  

WASHINGTON — President Joe Biden goes into next year’s election with a vexing challenge: Just as the U.S. economy is getting stronger, people are still feeling horrible about it. “Things are getting better and people think things are going to get worse — and that’s the most dangerous piece of this,” said Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, who has worked with …

Stock market in Biden’s first 100 days is hottest since JFK’s
3 years, 7 months ago

Stock market in Biden’s first 100 days is hottest since JFK’s

CNN  

New York CNN Business — The Biden bust that the Trump campaign warned of has morphed into a Biden boom. That means President Joe Biden is on track for the strongest stock market performance during a new president’s first 100 days since John F. Kennedy in 1961, according to CFRA Research. The Biden rally squeaks past the 8.4%jump during the …

Wall Street shrugs, stocks rise even as Trump won’t concede
4 years, 1 month ago

Wall Street shrugs, stocks rise even as Trump won’t concede

Associated Press  

NEW YORK — A huge fear for Wall Street coming into this month was a contested U.S. presidential election, one that could drag the market through more painful uncertainty. Now, more than a week after Election Day, President Donald Trump and his allies are challenging the results in a number of states that gave Joe Biden enough Electoral College votes …

Wall Street Pauses as Joe Biden Edges Closer to Victory in US Presidential Election
4 years, 1 month ago

Wall Street Pauses as Joe Biden Edges Closer to Victory in US Presidential Election

News 18  

Wall Street’s main indexes took a breather on Friday after sharp gains this week as Democrat Joe Biden edged closer to victory in a nail-biting election, while the monthly jobs report underlined the economic challenge facing America’s next president. “Even with these states being really close, we might have to go back and recount, so we’re in for a long …

Finance executives fret as US presidential election too close to call
4 years, 1 month ago

Finance executives fret as US presidential election too close to call

Live Mint  

Wall Street and global financial executives are waiting anxiously for a clear winner in the 2020 US election after President Donald Trump called foul play, stoking fears of a drawn-out count that keeps markets and businesses hanging. Wall Street has been leaning left this election, with Democratic challenger Joe Biden outstripping Trump in financial industry fundraising. Jim McCormick, global head …

Premarket: What a Biden victory could mean for energy, health care and tech stocks
4 years, 1 month ago

Premarket: What a Biden victory could mean for energy, health care and tech stocks

CNN  

A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. “A Biden victory would continue a significant sentiment shift away from energy investments,” Mills said. With the US presidential election just one day away, the stock market has locked in its prediction about the victor — at least according to one indicator, my CNN Business colleague …

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