Man who's taken $92 million in 2024 presidential election bets reveals why his platform is a better predictor than polls
4 months, 3 weeks ago

Man who's taken $92 million in 2024 presidential election bets reveals why his platform is a better predictor than polls

Daily Mail  

Opinion polls say the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump comes down to a coin flip. Don't be, says Tarek Mansour, CEO of Kalshi, America's first legal online election prediction wagering platform, which has taken in more than $92 million in bets tied to the 2024 race. Kalshi's presidential election market gives Trump a striking 26-point lead over Vice President Harris. They can even have a flutter on whether Musk gets nominated for a cabinet post, and whether Harris follow's Trump's lead and sits down for an interview with popular podcaster Joe Rogan But the mania surrounding the prediction markets has stoked fears that they can be artificially manipulated to favor a candidate. Trump's big lead on Kalshi and Polymarket could therefore reflect enthusiasm for him among those platform's users.

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History of this topic

Donald Trump Jr. joins betting-market startup Kalshi as adviser
2 months, 1 week ago

Donald Trump Jr. joins betting-market startup Kalshi as adviser

Salon  

Donald Trump Jr. has joined Kalshi, the betting platform that predicted his father's reelection, as an adviser. Trump Jr. said he "immediately knew I had to contribute to their mission" when Kalshi called Trump's win hours before the media did. Related FBI raids home of Polymarket CEO The court ruling reopened the door for election betting, a common practice in …

Betting markets eye expansion after predicting Trump's win
3 months, 2 weeks ago

Betting markets eye expansion after predicting Trump's win

Salon  

On election eve, Arlene Battishill, a retired history professor and political analyst known as "Dr. Arlene Unfiltered" to her social media followers, picked up a bottle of champagne, confident in the data across different states that showed a potential Kamala Harris win. Related FBI raids home of Polymarket CEO The results, supporters say, bolster the case for prediction markets as …

Prediction markets are basking in their election win. Can it last?
4 months, 2 weeks ago

Prediction markets are basking in their election win. Can it last?

Live Mint  

Prediction markets passed a closely watched test by correctly forecasting that Donald Trump would win the election. “From my perspective, polls pretty much failed," said Koleman Strumpf, a professor at Wake Forest University who has studied prediction markets. View Full Image Interactive Brokers Chairman Thomas Peterffy Photo: Thomas Peterffy “A small edge in the polls could translate to a big …

How prediction markets saw something the polls and pundits didn’t
4 months, 2 weeks ago

How prediction markets saw something the polls and pundits didn’t

CNN  

A version of this story appeared in CNN Business’ Nightcap newsletter. But over on the betting platform Polymarket, the odds were much more solidly in former President Donald Trump’s favor. The emergence of that so-called Trump whale sparked intense scrutiny of Polymarket over the past several weeks, because it sure looked possible that an anonymous deep-pocketed investor was trying to …

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour on Prediction Markets’ Big Night: ‘We Even Overtook Pornhub’
55 years, 2 months ago

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour on Prediction Markets’ Big Night: ‘We Even Overtook Pornhub’

Wired  

Last evening, when most traditional polls showed the 2024 US presidential election as a toss-up between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump, prediction markets including Kalshi, Robinhood, and Polymarket broadcast a very different outcome, correctly anticipating a decisive Trump win in the electoral college. “It’s such a better alternative to polls,” says Kalshi cofounder and CEO Tarek …

How a French gambler’s huge bet spiked Trump’s odds on Polymarket – and why it may threaten democracy
4 months, 3 weeks ago

How a French gambler’s huge bet spiked Trump’s odds on Polymarket – and why it may threaten democracy

The Independent  

Over the last three months, four accounts on a popular gambling site have placed thousands of bets totalling more than $50 million on Donald Trump winning the US presidential election next week. Some fear that Trump’s massively inflated betting odds could be used by his supporters as evidence that the election was stolen, while regulators have warned that gambling sites …

Americans Can Place Political Bets This Election Cycle
4 months, 3 weeks ago

Americans Can Place Political Bets This Election Cycle

CNN  

In a historic shift, Americans can now place political wagers on who will win the White House. More than $100 million in election bets have been traded on Kalshi, a federally regulated prediction market that was given the green light to offer election betting after a federal appeals court upheld a lower court's order that made way for legal political …

Americans bet $100 million on Trump v. Harris, but at what cost?
4 months, 3 weeks ago

Americans bet $100 million on Trump v. Harris, but at what cost?

NPR  

Americans bet $100 million on Trump v. Harris, but at what cost? toggle caption Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images An election betting "Bet on the US election," the ad for Kalshi said as Trump spoke on stage. Sponsor Message The company's CEO, Tarek Mansour, told NPR his election market — which shows a 63% chance of Trump winning as of Tuesday …

Four mystery accounts dished out $30 million of crypto on bets that Trump would win White House
5 months ago

Four mystery accounts dished out $30 million of crypto on bets that Trump would win White House

The Independent  

Sign up for the daily Inside Washington email for exclusive US coverage and analysis sent to your inbox Get our free Inside Washington email Get our free Inside Washington email SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. While National polling averages by FiveThirtyEight show Harris with a 2.5-point lead over Trump, …

Kalshi: Federal appeals court allows prediction market to offer US election betting
5 months, 2 weeks ago

Kalshi: Federal appeals court allows prediction market to offer US election betting

CNN  

CNN — A federal appeals court in Washington, DC, on Wednesday allowed a prediction market to offer election betting, denying a government watchdog’s request to halt a ruling that made way for legal political gambling in the United States. A panel of three judges unanimously ruled Wednesday that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which had argued that the wagers were …

There’s a Glorious Website Where You Can Bet on Politics, and the U.S. Is About to Kill It
2 years, 7 months ago

There’s a Glorious Website Where You Can Bet on Politics, and the U.S. Is About to Kill It

Slate  

Everybody knows that money talks. As a user since PredictIt’s first year in operation, I have participated in dozens of markets as a hobby—and walked away with thousands of dollars in winnings for my trouble. Many topics in politics command broad but mostly shallow attention; the theory behind PredictIt is that betting markets incentivize deep, reliable knowledge that can cut …

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