Just how accurate are the latest Trump and Harris polls?
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Just how accurate are the latest Trump and Harris polls?

The Independent  

When Donald Trump left office, the polling organisation, Gallup, reported that he had a 38 per cent job approval rating – an abysmally low number. The Iowa finding, made yesterday, threw a grenade into the sums, as it’s not a swing state but a safe Republican state – and therefore, it was assumed, locked in for Trump. But each of the seven critical battleground states is showing wriggle room or enough space for typical polling error, traditionally put at three per cent. The real margin of error could be more than twice that, at seven per cent, according to one analysis that compared how people said they would vote with what really occurred.

Trump Harris Poll Polls Cent  presidential  polls  cent  harris  trump  accurate  latest  seven  poll  theyre  low  polling

History of this topic

US pollsters miss the mark. Donald Trump defies predictions in historic win
1 month, 2 weeks ago

US pollsters miss the mark. Donald Trump defies predictions in historic win

Live Mint  

In a stunning Election Night victory, President-elect Donald Trump outperformed expectations, securing a decisive win over Kamala Harris in both the Electoral College and the national popular vote. Pollsters misjudged Trump’s popularity Leading National Poll outlets such as FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver’s projections, the Washington Post, and the New York Times have all shown Vice President Kamala Harris with a narrow …

US election results: How did opinion polls undercount Trump voters again?
1 month, 2 weeks ago

US election results: How did opinion polls undercount Trump voters again?

Al Jazeera  

It’s the third consecutive election in which opinion polls have underestimated Trump’s support. Ahead of the United States presidential elections on Tuesday, public opinion polls had predicted a neck-and-neck race between Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. Pollsters got it wrong even in several states that Harris won – undercounting Trump’s support and thereby predicting a far great margin …

Pollsters were blindsided by breadth of Trump win
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Pollsters were blindsided by breadth of Trump win

Live Mint  

WASHINGTON : Pollsters as a group had prepared Americans for a very close presidential race, and that is the way it turned out in several battleground states. Yet many surveys didn’t signal that Trump would end up making such broad gains compared with 2020, including his improved margins among both college-educated and working-class voters, in exurbs as well as rural …

Five surprising things we learned from the 2024 results
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Five surprising things we learned from the 2024 results

Live Mint  

It may take some time to complete all the results, but based on initial returns and AP VoteCast data, here are five major developments from election night. Voter survey numbers from Tuesday showed Trump won 18- to 29-year-old men by 11 percentage points, securing 54% of that group compared with 43% for Kamala Harris. Harris won college-educated voters by 16 …

Can Kamala Harris still win? Pessimism turns to dismay at Harris HQ
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Can Kamala Harris still win? Pessimism turns to dismay at Harris HQ

The Independent  

Sign up for the daily Inside Washington email for exclusive US coverage and analysis sent to your inbox Get our free Inside Washington email Please enter a valid email address Please enter a valid email address SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. The Republican presidential nominee currently stands within four …

Donald Trump sees stunning boost in Polymarket election odds in scary sign for Kamala Harris
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Donald Trump sees stunning boost in Polymarket election odds in scary sign for Kamala Harris

Daily Mail  

Donald Trump's chances of victory on the betting site Polymarket surpassed 94 percent on election night. Polymarket showing that Trump has a 94 percent chance of winning The huge movement comes as election results in critical battleground states remain up in the air. On the political betting sire Kalshi, Trump has an 90 percent chance, and Harris 10 percent. Trump's …

Polls begin to close in US elections, as Trump and Harris vie for presidency
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Polls begin to close in US elections, as Trump and Harris vie for presidency

The Independent  

For free real time breaking news alerts sent straight to your inbox sign up to our breaking news emails Sign up to our free breaking news emails Please enter a valid email address Please enter a valid email address SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Former president Mr Trump appeared …

GOP strategist analyzes key factors behind Trump’s election victory
1 month, 2 weeks ago

GOP strategist analyzes key factors behind Trump’s election victory

NPR  

GOP strategist analyzes key factors behind Trump’s election victory MICHEL MARTIN, HOST: We're going to dig in a bit more on this with Republican strategist Ron Bonjean. MARTIN: So the polls had both former President Trump and Vice President Harris neck and neck going into Election Day. I mean, if there's somebody that wasn't really qualified, you know, that would …

Huge surge in Latino voters for Trump, exit poll reveals
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Huge surge in Latino voters for Trump, exit poll reveals

The Telegraph  

Harris squeaks ahead in overall vote share The exit poll suggests that Ms Harris has the support of 50 per cent of voters overall, compared with Trump’s 48 per cent. Trump boost among middle-aged voters Trump has seen an increase in support among middle-aged voters overall, with a boost of between two and three points among voters aged 40-64, the …

Voters reveal who they put money on winning Donald Trump vs Kamala Harris election after historic betting odds
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Voters reveal who they put money on winning Donald Trump vs Kamala Harris election after historic betting odds

Daily Mail  

Voters have revealed the staggering amounts of money they have been placing on the 2024 presidential election. One person told us they backed Harris with $500 while another man said he had put $5,000 down on Trump to win the race to the White House. DailyMail.com took to Times Square in New York City to ask those just how much …

Odds on Donald Trump winning US election soar to 62% hours after polls open as Americans pile in on The Don beating Kamala
Top News
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Odds on Donald Trump winning US election soar to 62% hours after polls open as Americans pile in on The Don beating Kamala

Daily Mail  

Punters have piled in on Donald Trump winning the 2024 presidential election, with odds of a Republican victory standing at 62 percent on one betting platform. Punters have piled in on Donald Trump winning the 2024 presidential election, with odds of a Republican victory standing at 62 percent on one betting platform On platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, billions of …

Harris emerges as frontrunner in White House election forecast
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Harris emerges as frontrunner in White House election forecast

Hindustan Times  

Kamala Harris emerges as the front-runner to win the White House in a surprising turn of events. FiveThirtyEight's polling model predicts Harris as the winner, with 50 out of 100 simulations showing her victory. Despite Nate Silver's final prediction favoring Trump, Harris's campaign gains momentum in key battleground states, including Pennsylvania, which holds significant electoral votes. The outcome of the …

Nate Silver's final forecast: "As close as you can possibly get to 50/50"
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Nate Silver's final forecast: "As close as you can possibly get to 50/50"

Salon  

When Nate Silver says the election is "closer than a coin flip," he's basing it on hard numbers — heads empirically win 50.5 percent of the time, a greater margin than Vice President Kamala Harris' 50.15 percent chance of winning the superstar election handicapper's final forecast. In six out of the seven crucial battleground states, the model's polling average holds …

50 numbers that explain the 2024 election
1 month, 2 weeks ago

50 numbers that explain the 2024 election

Politico  

50 numbers that explain the 2024 election Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are locked in a contest that could come down to the margins. Former President Donald Trump’s favorability ratings — Favorable: 43.6%; Unfavorable: 52.2% 18. Consecutive months Donald Trump’s approval ratings were under 50% as president — 48 20. — Trump votes in Florida, says …

US election: First polls open after Trump and Harris deliver final pitches — as it happened
1 month, 2 weeks ago

US election: First polls open after Trump and Harris deliver final pitches — as it happened

ABC  

We're only hours into voting, but let's look forward for a minute to when counting begins. In the 2020 election, some states showed a "red mirage," in which Trump was leading on election night, before a "blue shift" saw Democrat Joe Biden overtake him as mail-in ballots favored by more Democratic voters were counted. Experts had accurately predicted it would …

Top polling guru predicts race between Trump and Harris will be a ‘toss-up’
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Top polling guru predicts race between Trump and Harris will be a ‘toss-up’

The Independent  

Sign up for the daily Inside Washington email for exclusive US coverage and analysis sent to your inbox Get our free Inside Washington email Please enter a valid email address Please enter a valid email address SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Silver noted that the Iowa poll “probably” won’t …

New poll spells hope for Harris as she leads Trump in four key swing states
1 month, 2 weeks ago

New poll spells hope for Harris as she leads Trump in four key swing states

The Independent  

Sign up for the daily Inside Washington email for exclusive US coverage and analysis sent to your inbox Get our free Inside Washington email Get our free Inside Washington email SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Read our privacy policy Kamala Harris has now overtaken Donald Trump in four critical …

Women Driving Iowa's Political Shift: Poll Shows
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Women Driving Iowa's Political Shift: Poll Shows

India Today  

Democratic candidate Kamala Harris has surged ahead of Republican Donald Trump in a new poll in Iowa, with women voters playing a significant role in the turnaround. The poll shows Harris leading Trump 47%-44%, within the 3.4 percentage point margin of error, marking a significant shift from a September poll that had Trump with a 4-point lead.

Poll: In tight race, voters split on whether Harris intends to carry out her promises
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Poll: In tight race, voters split on whether Harris intends to carry out her promises

NPR  

Poll: In tight race, voters split on whether Harris intends to carry out her promises toggle caption Evan Vucci/AP Respondents in a new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll aren’t convinced Vice President Harris, as president, would carry out the proposals she’s put forward during this campaign, in a sign of what may be preventing her from closing the deal with voters. But …

US election 'oracle' predicts surprise Kamala Harris win in Iowa as Donald Trump rails at 'fake' poll
1 month, 2 weeks ago

US election 'oracle' predicts surprise Kamala Harris win in Iowa as Donald Trump rails at 'fake' poll

ABC  

If you look at only one opinion poll ahead of the US presidential election, many argue it should be Ann Selzer's. Most observers believe Tuesday's election could be among the closest in history, but Selzer's poll made a clear call when it was published at the weekend, and it's good news for Kamala Harris. The New York Times/Siena College poll …

Bombshell Iowa poll puts Harris ahead of Trump in state he won twice
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Bombshell Iowa poll puts Harris ahead of Trump in state he won twice

The Independent  

Sign up for the daily Inside Washington email for exclusive US coverage and analysis sent to your inbox Get our free Inside Washington email Please enter a valid email address Please enter a valid email address SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Kamala Harris turnaround a four point lead for …

Harris's Surge in Iowa Poll: Turning the Tide in a State That Trump Dominated
Trending News
1 month, 2 weeks ago

Harris's Surge in Iowa Poll: Turning the Tide in a State That Trump Dominated

Live Mint  

Democratic candidate Kamala Harris has overtaken Republican Donald Trump in a new poll in Iowa, marking a significant turnaround in the state's political landscape. The poll, conducted by the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll, showed Harris leading Trump 47%-44%, within the 3.4 percentage point margin of error. This poll suggests that women, particularly older and politically independent voters, are driving …

Harris's 3-Point Lead in Iowa Sparks a Political Showdown
1 month, 3 weeks ago

Harris's 3-Point Lead in Iowa Sparks a Political Showdown

Al Jazeera  

In a close race in several swing states, the Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris, leads in Iowa, while the incumbent, Donald Trump, maintains a slight edge in Pennsylvania, Virginia, and North Carolina. A highly respected poll in Iowa shows Harris ahead by 3 percentage points, suggesting a potential turning point in the election. However, neither candidate has breached the 50 percent …

Iowa poll surprisingly bends toward Harris
1 month, 3 weeks ago

Iowa poll surprisingly bends toward Harris

Salon  

While the focus has been on expectedly tight swing states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, a state in the heartland has shocked pollsters. Kamala Harris leads in a new poll of likely Iowa voters, a complete flip of the candidate's projected performance in the state from earlier this year. The last poll of a Biden-Trump matchup gave Trump an 18-point lead …

Will Harris or Trump win next week? Questions still up in the air may be decisive
1 month, 3 weeks ago

Will Harris or Trump win next week? Questions still up in the air may be decisive

LA Times  

Supporters crowd a Harris rally in Phoenix on Thursday. But it was a different sort of welcome news: “Mom and Dad, we’ve decided we’re voting for Harris.” Multiply that by a few million, and you have the tension of the final week of what polls show is one of the closest presidential races in American history: Across the U.S., especially …

The stunning gender divide between Trump and Harris in the 2024 election is laid bare in new poll
1 month, 3 weeks ago

The stunning gender divide between Trump and Harris in the 2024 election is laid bare in new poll

Daily Mail  

If 2016 was the education election, when voters divided depending on whether or not they had been to college, then 2024 is shaping up to be a battle of the sexes. Women have a more positive view of Harris, as seen in this word cloud 'Donald Trump – you never see him around strong, intelligent women, ever. It found that …

Harris, Schiff enjoy big leads in California, but Biden’s victory was bigger in 2020, poll finds
1 month, 3 weeks ago

Harris, Schiff enjoy big leads in California, but Biden’s victory was bigger in 2020, poll finds

LA Times  

Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump, left, speaking at a campaign event Sept. 25, 2024, in Mint Hill, N.C., and Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris, right, speaking a campaign event Oct. 19, 2024, in Atlanta. Anna Kelly, a spokesperson for the Republican National Committee, which is coordinating closely with the Trump campaign, said in a statement to …

Harris Holds Narrow Edge Over Trump in Wisconsin and Michigan, Tied in Pennsylvania Poll
1 month, 3 weeks ago

Harris Holds Narrow Edge Over Trump in Wisconsin and Michigan, Tied in Pennsylvania Poll

Firstpost  

Vice President Kamala Harris leads Trump in Wisconsin and Michigan, but the race is tied in Pennsylvania, with both candidates at 48%. The results suggest that Harris has a slight edge in Michigan, while Trump holds an advantage in Wisconsin. However, the race is very competitive, with both candidates receiving close to 50% of the vote in each state.

Harris's Lead Tightens as Election Draws Near
Trending News
1 month, 3 weeks ago

Harris's Lead Tightens as Election Draws Near

India Today  

Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris leads a slight poll with 50% support, compared to Republican nominee Donald Trump's 47%, with a margin of error of one percentage point. The poll highlights the competitive nature of the race, with both candidates focusing on crucial swing states to secure victory.

Tight Race Looms in Wisconsin as Election Draws Near
1 month, 3 weeks ago

Tight Race Looms in Wisconsin as Election Draws Near

Hindustan Times  

A tight race is shaping up in the upcoming US election, with polls showing razor-thin margins in several key states. The latest polls indicate a close contest between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump, with Pennsylvania poised to be the deciding factor in the election. While Harris leads nationally by a small margin, she is performing better in Pennsylvania …

Harris, Trump neck-and-neck in several swing states in multiple polls
1 month, 3 weeks ago

Harris, Trump neck-and-neck in several swing states in multiple polls

Salon  

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are heading toward the finish line in a dead heat, according to several recent polls of swing state voters. Their poll found that the candidates were tied in the state with 47% of likely voters pulling the lever for both Harris and Trump. While these swing states are nearly always critical in presidential elections, Michigan, …

Harris leads Trump in two new polls thanks to strong support among women
1 month, 3 weeks ago

Harris leads Trump in two new polls thanks to strong support among women

Salon  

Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump in two new polls released Sunday, with women voters propelling the vice president's lead. The CBS poll showed that 41% of women think efforts to promote gender equality haven’t gone far enough, the majority of those voters support Harris. Related Trump expands list of enemies at MSG rally The latest ABC …

Harris and Trump Battle It Out in Pennsylvania and New York City
1 month, 3 weeks ago

Harris and Trump Battle It Out in Pennsylvania and New York City

Al Jazeera  

The article focuses on the upcoming US election and the campaigns of Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. It highlights the close race between the two candidates, with a recent poll showing a tie at 49 percent each. The poll also indicates that Harris's unfavourable rating edged up to 47.8 percent, while her favourable rating was at …

New poll shows Harris and Trump tied as number of undecided voters shrinks
1 month, 3 weeks ago

New poll shows Harris and Trump tied as number of undecided voters shrinks

The Independent  

Sign up for the daily Inside Washington email for exclusive US coverage and analysis sent to your inbox Get our free Inside Washington email Please enter a valid email address Please enter a valid email address SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Please try again later {{ /verifyErrors }} Donald …

Trump and Harris are deadlocked with 48% each in latest poll
1 month, 4 weeks ago

Trump and Harris are deadlocked with 48% each in latest poll

The Independent  

Sign up for the daily Inside Washington email for exclusive US coverage and analysis sent to your inbox Get our free Inside Washington email Please enter a valid email address Please enter a valid email address SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Please try again later {{ /verifyErrors }} Kamala …

Tight Race in Presidential Election, With No Clear Leader
Trending News
54 years, 11 months ago

Tight Race in Presidential Election, With No Clear Leader

CNN  

Two national polls show a tight race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump in the upcoming presidential election. Both candidates maintain similar favorability ratings and hold narrow leads on key issues such as the economy, immigration, and abortion. The results suggest that the race is too close to call, with no clear frontrunner emerging.

Trump Voters Believe Election Will Be Run Badly: Poll
1 month, 4 weeks ago

Trump Voters Believe Election Will Be Run Badly: Poll

Huff Post  

LOADING ERROR LOADING With just days until Election Day, former President Donald Trump and the Republican Party’s closing message is that any Democratic win will be the result of cheating — and new polling shows their voters believe them. It just doesn’t work out.” Only 57% of Trump supporters said they believe this November’s elections will be run and administered …

Trump's Gains Over Harris in Latest Poll as Election Draws Near
1 month, 4 weeks ago

Trump's Gains Over Harris in Latest Poll as Election Draws Near

India Today  

A new poll shows that former president Donald Trump is leading the race to the White House against Vice President Kamala Harris. The poll shows Trump with a 47% support of likely voters around the country while Harris trails right behind with 45%. The poll also showed the former president with a three-point margin (49% to 46%) over Harris in …

Can we trust the polls about Harris and Trump — and how do they really work?
1 month, 4 weeks ago

Can we trust the polls about Harris and Trump — and how do they really work?

The Independent  

Sign up for the daily Inside Washington email for exclusive US coverage and analysis sent to your inbox Get our free Inside Washington email Please enter a valid email address Please enter a valid email address SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. “It’s not the most satisfying answer, but because …

Harris and Trump Target Latino Voters in Crucial Georgia Election
2 months ago

Harris and Trump Target Latino Voters in Crucial Georgia Election

Al Jazeera  

The article focuses on the upcoming US presidential election and the current political landscape. It highlights the tight race between Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican contender Donald Trump, with both candidates maintaining a close lead in national polls. The article also provides a detailed overview of the key campaign activities and events taking place in key battleground states, such …

New poll shows Harris 11 points ahead of Trump in favorability
2 months ago

New poll shows Harris 11 points ahead of Trump in favorability

The Independent  

Sign up for the daily Inside Washington email for exclusive US coverage and analysis sent to your inbox Get our free Inside Washington email Please enter a valid email address Please enter a valid email address SIGN UP I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Please try again later {{ /verifyErrors }} Kamala …

Harris vs Trump: A Tight Race in the 2024 Presidential Election
Trending News
2 months ago

Harris vs Trump: A Tight Race in the 2024 Presidential Election

Live Mint  

A recent poll reveals a close race between Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and former Republican President Donald Trump in the upcoming presidential election. Harris holds a slim lead over Trump with 46 per cent to 43 per cent among registered voters, with a significant portion expressing a preference for Trump's approach to critical issues like the economy and immigration. …

US Election 2024: Kamala Harris vs Donald Trump — battle for presidency heats up; find out who's ahead
2 months ago

US Election 2024: Kamala Harris vs Donald Trump — battle for presidency heats up; find out who's ahead

Live Mint  

A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll has intensified the spotlight on the upcoming presidential election, revealing a competitive race between Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and former Republican President Donald Trump. The survey, conducted among 4,129 US adults, including 3,481 registered voters, shows Harris holding a slim lead over Trump with 46 per cent to 43 per cent. Among likely voters, this …

Democrats Hold Narrow Lead Over Republicans in Latest Poll, With Harris Just 3 Points Ahead of Trump
Top News
2 months ago

Democrats Hold Narrow Lead Over Republicans in Latest Poll, With Harris Just 3 Points Ahead of Trump

Firstpost  

Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris maintains a narrow lead over Republican former President Donald Trump in a new Reuters/Ipsos poll. The poll shows Harris with a 3% lead, compared to Trump's 4% lead in the previous poll conducted a week ago. The poll also indicates that voters are concerned about the economy and immigration, with 70% of registered voters expressing …

Poll of Latino voters finds growing support for Harris
2 months ago

Poll of Latino voters finds growing support for Harris

Raw Story  

WASHINGTON — A new poll released Monday by a civic engagement group found that Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris continues to grow her support with Latinos in critical battleground states. In August, Harris had the support of about 60% of Latino voters compared to GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump’s 29%, according to the poll. In the swing states of Arizona, …

US Election: 14 Days Left — What Polls Say, What Harris and Trump Are Up To
2 months ago

US Election: 14 Days Left — What Polls Say, What Harris and Trump Are Up To

Al Jazeera  

The US presidential election is tight across the country, with both candidates campaigning heavily in key battleground states. While polls show a close race, neither candidate has gained a significant lead. Trump is focused on securing support in North Carolina, while Harris is campaigning in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Obama is set to join Harris on the campaign trail, while …

US Presidential polls 2024: Will Donald Trump be next US President? Here's what betting markets predict
2 months ago

US Presidential polls 2024: Will Donald Trump be next US President? Here's what betting markets predict

Live Mint  

With under three weeks until the presidential election, Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris in prediction markets, showing a 60% chance of victory. Election Betting Odds, which aggregates data from the major markets, shows Trump has a 57% chance, the largest margin in his favour since 29 July, up from about 48% at the end of September. Groups supporting Trump and …

Why you should stop looking at 2024 election polls in the coming weeks
2 months ago

Why you should stop looking at 2024 election polls in the coming weeks

LA Times  

I watch polls for a living. They want to know — if you’re reading this, you probably want to know — the one answer that polls in a close race can’t provide: Who’s going to win. Adam Carlson, a former Democratic pollster who has compiled data from multiple surveys, notes that polls in 2020 significantly overestimated Trump’s support among Black …

Election prediction model gives Trump a 62.4% chance of victory
2 months, 1 week ago

Election prediction model gives Trump a 62.4% chance of victory

Daily Mail  

Monday brings a potentially decisive shift in the DailyMail.com/J.L. Partners election model: For the first time it has shifted to 'lean Trump' after weeks of indicating that the ballot is a 'toss up.' When those numbers are fed into our exclusive prediction model, it shows that Trump would claim the overall win in 62.4 percent of our simulations. Partners, said …

Discover Related