A hyperpolarized, deeply fragile 2022 election: Democrats’ energy over Roe blunts GOP advantage

Abortion rights advocates and anti-abortion protesters demonstrated in front of the Supreme Court in December 2021, foreshadowing the political firestorm set off by the overturning of Roe vs. Wade. “The numbers and fundamentals don’t lie,” said Matt Gorman, a GOP strategist and former communications director of the National Republican Congressional Committee, which works to elect Republicans to the House. He pointed to Biden’s approval rating, which still averages in the low 40s, as “the one number above all others that I’m looking at.” Still, election prognosticators have recently recalibrated their views, churning out analyses that GOP control of the House is “no longer a foregone conclusion” and “the Senate majority is up for grabs.” Recent polls have shown some movement in Democrats’ favor. “I do think it is that type of before and after moment where everything changed.” Ken Spain, a Republican strategist and former spokesman for the House GOP campaign arm, agreed that Dobbs roused lethargic Democrats, but said it’s often the case that disaffected base voters come home to their party as the midterms near. Biden’s decreasing significance in determining how people vote is “pretty unusual.especially in this era, when the president is so dominant in terms of policy,” said Carroll Doherty, Pew’s director of political research.