As rupee slides, a primer on how to manage an emerging market currency
1 day, 1 hour ago

As rupee slides, a primer on how to manage an emerging market currency

Live Mint  

The past two years have been hard on emerging market currencies. The year 2024 should have been better—given easing inflation and lower interest rates—but Donald Trump’s election as the next US president has renewed uncertainty and plunged EM currencies into chaos again. Fiscal matters If a trade deficit is India’s problem, turn to Brazil: even a whopping $87 billion trade surplus in 2023 couldn’t help its currency prevent a 21% slide in 2024. India also needs to be concerned for two reasons: it has a trade surplus, though relatively small, with the US, and Trump has accused India of high tariffs and threatened to reciprocate. Confidence in the currency Beyond growth, inflation, trade balance, and fiscal dynamics, the most important factor in currency markets is investor confidence.

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History of this topic

Currency concerns: on the rupee
2 weeks, 1 day ago

Currency concerns: on the rupee

The Hindu  

It has been a tumultuous time for the Indian rupee even as the Reserve Bank of India has been actively stepping into the foreign exchange market to stem its free fall in pursuit of what it calls an ‘orderly’ exchange movement. The Donald Trump factor added a fresh headwind with the dollar strengthening since his U.S. presidential electoral victory, and …

Services exports save the day for India’s current account deficit in September quarter
2 weeks, 4 days ago

Services exports save the day for India’s current account deficit in September quarter

Live Mint  

Mumbai: A rise in services exports helped narrow India's current account deficit in the September quarter, although this marked the second consecutive quarterly deficit after hitting a surplus in the final three months of FY24. In the three months prior to that—the fourth quarter of 2023-24 —India had registered its first current account surplus in about four years due to …

Record trade deficit adds to rupee’s challenges, may open to all-time low
4 weeks, 1 day ago

Record trade deficit adds to rupee’s challenges, may open to all-time low

Live Mint  

By Nimesh Vora MUMBAI, Dec 17 - The Indian rupee may slip to an all-time low on Tuesday with the currency, already under pressure from slowing growth, choppy equity flows and a dollar rally, will have to contend with an unexpected widening in trade deficit to a record high. The jump in gold imports and weak exports pushed India's merchandise …

India’s Trade Deficit Widens to Record as Gold Demand Soars
Top News
4 weeks, 1 day ago

India’s Trade Deficit Widens to Record as Gold Demand Soars

Live Mint  

-- India’s trade deficit expanded to a record high in November, as the nation’s import bill ballooned, particularly due to a rise in gold shipments. The gap between exports and imports stood at $37.8 billion in November, trade ministry data showed Monday, much higher than the $23 billion deficit forecast by economists in a Bloomberg survey. A widening trade deficit …

Rupee's slide: What it means for economy, markets, and you
1 month, 1 week ago

Rupee's slide: What it means for economy, markets, and you

India Today  

The rupee’s recent tumble to a record low of 84.73 against the US dollar has raised concerns about its impact on the economy and people’s daily lives. Although the rupee has recovered slightly today due to gains in the Chinese yuan, the recent drop reflects a confluence of global and domestic factors, creating ripple effects that extend beyond currency markets. …

India’s current account deficit to remain manageable in FY25, Rupee to remain in pressure: Bank of Baroda
2 months ago

India’s current account deficit to remain manageable in FY25, Rupee to remain in pressure: Bank of Baroda

Live Mint  

New Delhi, November 15 : India's current account deficit will remain within a manageable range for both FY25 and FY26, largely due to muted oil prices that are expected to support the country's external financial position, projected a recent report by Bank of Baroda. Despite global market volatility, the report stated that steady oil prices at current levels are a …

India will meet its exports target of USD 800 billion this year: Commerce Secretary
2 months ago

India will meet its exports target of USD 800 billion this year: Commerce Secretary

Op India  

India’s exports surged by over 19 per cent in October. Commerce Secretary Sunil Barthwal was upbeat on the trade data and said, “It has been an extremely good month for us, and not only our overall export progress has been extremely good, but if you look at April to October, this has been the highest ever non-petroleum exports from this …

Is the spike in India’s trade deficit a worry?
3 months, 3 weeks ago

Is the spike in India’s trade deficit a worry?

The Hindu  

The story so far: After a positive start to goods exports in the first quarter of 2024-25, there has been a blip in momentum. On the exports front, 18 of India’s top 30 segments recorded growth in July and 19 in August, but the big-ticket sectors like petroleum, and gems and jewellery, have tanked significantly. While gems and jewellery exports …

August’s record gold influx lifts import bill to all-time high
3 months, 4 weeks ago

August’s record gold influx lifts import bill to all-time high

The Hindu  

India’s goods exports shrank 9.32% to $34.71 billion in August, while the import bill expanded 3.3% to an all-time high of $64.36 billion, fuelled by a doubling in gold imports to a record $10.1 billion. On the surge in gold imports, the top trade official pointed to plausible factors such as the recent reduction in import duty from 15% to …

India has trade surplus with 151 nations; deficit with 75 during Jan-June 2024: GTRI
4 months, 2 weeks ago

India has trade surplus with 151 nations; deficit with 75 during Jan-June 2024: GTRI

The Hindu  

India has recorded trade surplus with as many as 151 countries such as the U.S. and Netherlands, while the country has a trade deficit with 75 nations including China and Russia during the first half of this year, according to think tank GTRI. "Between January and June 2024, India had a trade surplus with 151 countries, representing 55.8 per cent …

Trade tact: The Hindu Editorial on India’s trade policy focus
5 months, 3 weeks ago

Trade tact: The Hindu Editorial on India’s trade policy focus

The Hindu  

India’s goods exports rose for the third successive month this June, growing 2.55% to $35.2 billion. With oil prices virtually unchanged over the last two months, this signals a drop in export volumes, just as a sharper 19.6% rise in June’s oil imports suggests a domestic demand spike. The oil deficit accounts for almost half of the first quarter trade …

India in trade deficit with nine of top 10 trading partners in 2023-24
7 months, 2 weeks ago

India in trade deficit with nine of top 10 trading partners in 2023-24

The Hindu  

India has recorded a trade deficit, the difference between imports and exports, with nine of its top 10 trading partners, including China, Russia, Singapore, and Korea, in 2023-24, according to official data. India's total trade deficit in the last fiscal narrowed to $238.3 billion as against $264.9 billion in the previous fiscal. Economic think tank Global Trade Research Initiative said …

Jan. goods trade deficit narrows sequentially to nine-month low of $17.5 billion
10 months, 4 weeks ago

Jan. goods trade deficit narrows sequentially to nine-month low of $17.5 billion

The Hindu  

India’s merchandise trade deficit, which had hit a record high of $29.9 billion in October, narrowed sequentially for the third straight month and touched a nine-month low of $17.5 billion in January, provisional estimates released by the Commerce Ministry on Thursday showed. Services exports, whose actual numbers will be released later, are estimated to have expanded 17.5% last month to …

A cloudy horizon: The Hindu Editorial on trade data
1 year ago

A cloudy horizon: The Hindu Editorial on trade data

The Hindu  

From a rare upward swing this October, India’s goods exports retreated into contraction last month, dipping 2.8% from 2022 levels to touch $33.9 billion. Imports dropped 4.33% to $54.5 billion, cooling the merchandise trade deficit to $20.6 billion, almost a third below October’s record high. August’s goods trade deficit was moderated by nearly three billion dollars, with the overall export-import …

Exports dipped again in November, but trade deficit eases 31% from record high
1 year ago

Exports dipped again in November, but trade deficit eases 31% from record high

The Hindu  

India’s goods exports slipped back into contraction to drop 2.83% in November to $33.9 billion, while imports fell by a sharper 4.33% to $54.48 billion. The trade deficit for November eased sharply beyond expectations to $20.58 billion from the all-time high of $29.91 billion recorded in October. Exports have been positive in November and higher than the overall exports of …

Explained: Why surging oil prices is bad for Indian rupee
1 year, 3 months ago

Explained: Why surging oil prices is bad for Indian rupee

India Today  

The Indian rupee could come under pressure and decline significantly in comparison to the US dollar, analysts have warned. Analysts quoted in a Reuters report fear that a combination of factors, including surging crude oil prices and a rally of the US dollar index, could lead to a significant decline in the Indian currency’s value. Oil on the boil Brent …

India’s goods trade deficit hits a 10-month high
1 year, 3 months ago

India’s goods trade deficit hits a 10-month high

The Hindu  

India’s foreign trade hit a fresh trough in August, with goods exports shrinking for the seventh successive month, services exports estimated to have dropped for the first time in well over a year, and the goods trade deficit hitting a 10-month high. The merchandise import bill for August dropped 5.23% year-on-year to $58.64 billion, but was 10.85% higher than July’s …

Exports fell 8.8% in February, but trade deficit also shrank over 7%
1 year, 9 months ago

Exports fell 8.8% in February, but trade deficit also shrank over 7%

The Hindu  

Tentative global demand pulled India’s goods exports down 8.8% in February to $33.9 billion, while imports fell 8.2% from a year ago to $51.31 billion, according to Commerce Ministry estimates released on Wednesday. The merchandise trade deficit during February 2023 fell 7% to $17.43 billion, slightly higher than January’s $16.56 billion deficit, which in turn was the lowest in at …

Trade tumult: The Hindu Editorial on shrinking exports
2 years, 1 month ago

Trade tumult: The Hindu Editorial on shrinking exports

The Hindu  

For the first time since February 2021, India’s goods exports shrank this October, dropping 16.7% from last year to slip below $30 billion after a 20-month-streak above that mark. While the Government acknowledged forecasts of a slump in global shipments growth to just 1% in 2023, it attributed the October trade blip to a seasonal Deepavali effect — production dips …

October exports drop 16.65%, deficit rises 50%
2 years, 1 month ago

October exports drop 16.65%, deficit rises 50%

The Hindu  

The global slowdown has begun to hit home, denting India’s goods exports by 16.65% in October compared to a year ago — the first contraction since February 2021 that dragged outbound shipments below $30 billion for the first time in 20 months. October’s deficit was about 4.7% higher than September 2022 and was the fourth successive month of an over …

India’s record trade deficit adds to external balance challenges, rupee woes
2 years, 5 months ago

India’s record trade deficit adds to external balance challenges, rupee woes

Live Mint  

India's record high trade deficit in July signals a further deterioration in the country's external balances, which is likely to keep the rupee under pressure, analysts said on Wednesday. Trade deficit in Asia's third largest economy widened to an all-time high of $31 billion, data on Tuesday showed, prompting concerns about the country's ability to fund its current account deficit …

Data | Why the rupee is under pressure — explained in seven charts
2 years, 5 months ago

Data | Why the rupee is under pressure — explained in seven charts

The Hindu  

Till recently, the rupee was recording fresh lows every other day. Deteriorating CAD A widening trade deficit causes the current account deficit to deteriorate which in turn adds pressure on the local currency. With slowing global economic growth and looming recession fears, a depreciating currency may not help spur exports which otherwise would have helped at least partly bridge the …

Despite pressures, the Indian rupee’s remarkable resilience
2 years, 5 months ago

Despite pressures, the Indian rupee’s remarkable resilience

The Hindu  

The Indian rupee has depreciated by around 7% against the U.S. dollar, since the start of the year, in response to various domestic and global factors. Specifically, a widening current account deficit, persistent risk-off sentiment as a result of geopolitical tensions, ‘a strengthening dollar index, and continuous sell-off by foreign portfolio investors have all put pressure on the rupee’. Elevated …

India’s currency could keep falling without failing us
2 years, 6 months ago

India’s currency could keep falling without failing us

Live Mint  

The Indian rupee has historically weakened against the US dollar, but bouts of volatility never fail to set alarm bells ringing. A ‘shock’ could take the form of sharp interest rate increases by systemically important central banks, such as the US Federal Reserve, geopolitical developments, oil price volatility, or a financial crisis—all of which create a risk-off scenario, leading to …

Understanding the all-time high in India’s trade deficit
2 years, 6 months ago

Understanding the all-time high in India’s trade deficit

The Hindu  

The story so far: Having crossed a record $400 billion mark in 2021-22, India’s exports have moderated in the first quarter of this year, with May and June clocking upticks of 20.6% and 16.8%, respectively, slowing from a 30.7% rise in April. Sequentially too, overall goods exports declined for the third month in a row in June, even as imports …

Indian rupee hits record low on CAD concerns
2 years, 6 months ago

Indian rupee hits record low on CAD concerns

The Hindu  

The Indian rupee hit a record low against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday as concerns of a wider current account deficit came to the forefront after the country's trade deficit hit an all-time high in June. Data late on Monday showed India's June trade deficit widened to a record high of $25.63 billion, following a rise in crude oil and …

Falling rupee, widening trade deficit - worrying signs for government
2 years, 6 months ago

Falling rupee, widening trade deficit - worrying signs for government

India Today  

The rupee continues to depreciate against the US dollar and India's June trade deficit widened further-- both are worrying factors for the government. India's June trade deficit widened to a record $25.63 billion from $9.61 billion a year ago amid a rise in crude oil and coal imports. The government official, however, said India's macro economic fundamentals remained strong and …

India Must Push Rupee as International Trade Currency, Benefits Far Outweigh Losses
2 years, 8 months ago

India Must Push Rupee as International Trade Currency, Benefits Far Outweigh Losses

News 18  

India operates a huge trade deficit in excess of $150 billion. But this, as per the RBI, “makes the simultaneous pursuit of exchange rate stability and a domestically oriented monetary policy more challenging, unless supported by large and deep domestic financial markets that could effectively absorb external shocks.” Lessons from History In early 1960s, the Rupee was the unit of …

Data | Why is the Indian rupee weakening
3 years ago

Data | Why is the Indian rupee weakening

The Hindu  

On December 16, the Indian rupee’s exchange rate slid past the 76-per-U.S.-dollar-mark for the first time since June 2020 and stood at 76.25. Click to remove AMP mode Modest fall The chart shows the year-to-date % change in the currency value of select emerging economies as on December 16, 2021. Widening trade deficit One of the factors that impacted the …

The Indian Rupee is getting crushed by RBI
5 years, 1 month ago

The Indian Rupee is getting crushed by RBI

Live Mint  

The Reserve Bank of India’s efforts to support the flagging economy are turning out to be a bane for the rupee. Weakness in the rupee despite robust inflows is seen as a sign the central bank wants to curb a sharp appreciation in the currency that can hurt exports. “Higher reserves prove that the central bank is probably making determined …

CAD widens to 2.5% of GDP in October-December quarter on higher trade deficit: RBI data
5 years, 9 months ago

CAD widens to 2.5% of GDP in October-December quarter on higher trade deficit: RBI data

Firstpost  

The country’s current account deficit widened to 2.5 percent of GDP in the third quarter of the current fiscal from 2.1 percent a year ago, primarily on account of a higher trade deficit, the RBI said on Friday Mumbai: The country’s current account deficit widened to 2.5 percent of GDP in the third quarter of the current fiscal from 2.1 …

Opinion | Caging the current account deficit
6 years, 3 months ago

Opinion | Caging the current account deficit

Live Mint  

It smells like 2013 all over again, with a ballooning current account deficit —higher goods trade deficit has offset buoyant remittances from abroad and a positive services trade balance—and a free fall in the rupee’s value versus the dollar. That said, the situation today is quite different from 2012 and 2013 when CAD was over 4% of the gross domestic …

Rupee at 74 to a dollar is still better than its peers, says Urjit Patel
6 years, 3 months ago

Rupee at 74 to a dollar is still better than its peers, says Urjit Patel

The Hindu  

On the day the rupee breached the 74-mark against the US dollar for the first time, RBI governor Urjit Patel on Friday reiterated that the domestic currency is still better than its emerging market peers and that the apex bank does not have a target for it. Admitting that the country has not been immune to global spillovers from external …

Indian rupee crisis: ‘Worst is not yet over’
6 years, 4 months ago

Indian rupee crisis: ‘Worst is not yet over’

Al Jazeera  

Analysts partly attribute the fall of rupee to a global crisis and Trump’s ‘declaration of a trade war’. A strong US dollar and high oil prices, coupled with investors dumping emerging markets’ currencies and a record high current account deficit – a measurement of a country’s trade where the value of its imports exceeds the value of its exports – …

Rupee woes to deepen as India braces for external headwinds
6 years, 4 months ago

Rupee woes to deepen as India braces for external headwinds

Hindustan Times  

India’s rupee owes its tag of Asia’s worst-performing currency this year to the selloff sweeping emerging markets. While foreign currency debt has zoomed, various external vulnerability indicators paint a rather mixed picture, according to the Reserve Bank of India’s annual report. Indeed, data due as early as next week will probably show the nation’s current-account deficit widened in the June …

Opinion | What the rupee weakness says about fundamentals
6 years, 4 months ago

Opinion | What the rupee weakness says about fundamentals

Live Mint  

English economist Joan Robinson once remarked that for every statement about India, the opposite is equally true. Around the 71st anniversary of India’s independence, the rupee too crossed the 70 mark against the US dollar. It may not be correct to focus on India’s bilateral trade deficit with China but it is right to be concerned about the overall trade …

Biggest trade deficit in five years is adding to rupee’s woes
6 years, 5 months ago

Biggest trade deficit in five years is adding to rupee’s woes

Hindustan Times  

India’s trade deficit in July widened to the most in more than five years, worsening the outlook for the rupee that hit a record low on Tuesday. The gap between exports and imports reached $18 billion in July, fanned by a higher oil import bill, according to data released by India’s commerce ministry on Tuesday. The rupee dropped to as …

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